Sunday, May 11, 2008

I've been in Vegas

.... for more than a year now and during that time I've heard about or witnessed lot of interesting gambling methods. In today's blog I am going to share them with you guys and give my thoughts on each. These are in no particular order but I'm going to start with the worst ones so I can vent about how dumb they are:


1. Walk into a sportsbook, grab a sheet, glance at the stats, then come up with an 8 team parlay while you are standing at the window. Some variations of this strategy include asking the teller what he/she likes (I always enjoyed that), backing up to look at the board to check the numbers again (Always fun for the people behind you in line), and asking the teller to void the original ticket and re-write it with one pointless change for no reason whatsoever (I can't believe I never attempted to strangle any of these idiots.)

Pro: If you actually won, you would make a lot of money.

Con: You're not going to win.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Everyone at the Hilton Ever Method." It's not going to work and it bothers everyone. I hate this one.


2. This next strategy slightly tweaks #1. These guys also do 8-team parlays but instead of at least trying to make some money on it, they take every big favorites on the moneyline. Because they have no balls and no idea how to handicap.

Pro: You have a better chance of winning than the guys who are using the first method.

Con: You have to win 8 games and you don't make much money.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Lee Robinson Method" although he is hardly alone. What an idiot. If you're going to take an 8-team parlay, hike up your skirt and try to make some money off it at the very least.


3. There is a certain group of people who will bet anything that is slightly off the market number and assume that by doing so they will win money in the long run. For instance, let's say the total for the First 5 Innings of a Mets-Braves game is 4.5 everywhere and one book puts it up as 5. These people will then blindly bet under 5 and assume that it is a good bet. They are more interested in playing bets at good numbers than in trying to handicap games or play their opinions.

Pro: There is some merit to this method. I can see how it would win in the long run if you always managed to get great numbers on everything you took.

Con: It's a heartless way of betting and you have to be a scumbag (like a certain young Swedish boy at the Plaza) to pull it off.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Sherman (and to a lesser extent Bennett) Method." Those guys are both pretty good but I'm not quite on board with their methodology.... yet. Maybe I'll like it better when Jeff leaves his current group and we form - The Sherman Group. That offer's still on the table, bro.


4. Play almost every game on the board but only in one major sport and be completely stubborn and defensive when other people give you advice or offer their own opinions.

Pro: Unlike the 8-team parlay bettors, these guys will have winning days but it's almost impossible to win over the long haul.

Con: http://www.rays2008.blogspot.com/

Bottom Line: Call this the "Hoffman Method." There will be good days but I find it hard to believe anyone can beat the books playing this many games in a sport as mainstream as baseball. Even a (self-described) sharp.


5. Blindly bet all of your favorite teams because you are going to be rooting for them anyway and your personal biases lead you to believe they have a better chance of winning than they really do.

Pro: When you win, it's doubly sweet.

Con: When you lose, it sucks even worse.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Ross (and to a lesser extent Bhushan) Method." I don't like it. In fact, I use the exact opposite approach: When the Redskins have an important game, I generally bet money on the other side to ease the pain when/if they lose. This is actually a really stupid method, too. I remember being in Tampa Bay 2 years ago after the Redskins beat the Bucs in an NFC Wild Card game. I was completely thrilled that we had won a playoff game for the first time in 6 years and then it hit me: I was now in debt to my bookie because I had bet on the Bucs. Ouch. My advice would be to just avoid games in which your favorite team(s) is involved.


6. Avoid mainstream sports and hone in on specialty sports such as NASCAR, soccer, or golf. This.... can work.

Pro: I've seen the results. It can be done.

Con: These events generally only take place on the weekends and that leaves you in the predicament of what to do with yourself during the week.... you know, if you're one of those compulsive types that has to have action. We'll talk more about this in Method #7 below.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Salmons/Sherman/Metcalf Method." If you immerse yourself in the sport, you can beat it. This method takes a lot of time and effort but it does work. There's only one method I've discovered better than this one and I'm saving it for the end.


7. When betting on mainstream events, look at the line, see what jumps out at you, then bet the opposite.

Pro: This works for the most part, especially in heavily wagered on games. It just proves to me that I know nothing about sports or gambling.

Con: It can be discouraging to find out just how bad you are at capping games.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Salmons/Metcalf" Method. It's good but not great. You're probably better off just sticking with your specialty sport and avoiding this stuff entirely but I know that I need more action than that. I suck.


8. Find someone who knows absolutely nothing about anything and is prone to making blowhard statements like calling a game a "lock." Whenever that person releases a "lock" in a major sporting event, immediately lay whatever is in your pocket on the other side.

Pro: You will win a lot.

Con: You have to listen to the rants of a crazy blowhard.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Chad Jackson Method." My favorite gambling method so far. A couple days ago Chad was telling me how much he loved the Celtics in Game 3 of their series with the Cavs. He called the play a lock and said he didn't understand why Cleveland was favored. That was all I needed to hear. Thanks a lot, Chad. By the way he also said the Celtics are a lock in Game 4. You all know what to do....


I have to apologize for any perceived "shots" in today's blog. All of the guys mentioned above have had at least some success betting on sports. Well all of them but Chad, of course. That last method is just gold. (He did clean up on the Super Bowl though. I'm going to go kill myself now.)

But seriously, I'm just bitter over a disappointing night at the "Lady in Black." She truly was too tough to tame. Plus I'm a little stressed over the pending lawsuit Amanda is hanging over my head. Be careful about starting a contest involving a girl you don't know. Especially if she's from Iowa.

Look, just to prove there are no hard feelings, I'll offer up another method:


9. Follow other people's plays and start a blog mocking anything and everyone involved with sports betting while you yourself are decidedly mediocre at it.

Pro: It's funny.

Con: It will cost you any friends you thought you had.

Bottom Line: Call this the "Murray Method." It um.... doesn't work. But I did have Ryan Howard to lead the majors in home runs at 40-1 two years ago! Take that Pinnacle!



( No, the retarded way Lars bets does not justify him getting his own method in the blog. It's not a method when only one person does it and that person never wins. It's just dumb. )


I'm sorry about not blogging the last few days and I hope some of you could find "humor" in today's blog and not be too offended by it. ( Sorry, Scott. I know you're a sensitive guy but you'll be okay. And the baseball will turn around.... )

I only have one bet today. I took the Lakers -30.5 FT Attempts in Game 4 of their series with the Jazz. Seems pretty safe.

No trivia today. No time for that. I just remembered that it's Mother's Day because my Dad just called to yell at me for not calling my Mom and I've already wasted 45 minutes doing this nonsense.

Don't everyone call Chad for his plays at once and don't forget to....



Enjoy the game.

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Carl Edwards

Carl Edwards
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