2008 AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

I've already tried one blog in which I went into relatively great detail describing all four teams in the AFC North. I did another blog where I chatted with two 'Experts" to break down the NFC North. Neither one was wildly successful, although I did receive some positive feedback regarding the latter. For the AFC South preview, I am going to take an entirely different tact by breaking down the Houston Texans, the blog's official 2008 NFL sleeper team and discussing why I think they will be competitive in the NFL's best division.

I'm really just doing it this way because it will take less time than my AFC North preview did. Plus, I think it's a good way to talk myself into the Texans.... Even though I've already made my bets on them.


Here's why I like Houston:


* The front four. Houston's defensive line may prove to be the AFC's best this side of New England. Last season, DE Mario Williams showed why he was the 1st overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, by racking up 14 sacks. That would be impressive for any player but to do that at just 22 years of age is nothing short of phenomenal. Williams is entering his third season this fall and Head Coach Gary Kubiak is on record saying that Williams has had as good an offseason as an NFL player he's ever seen. The blog is picking the 6'7 291 pound defensive end to win the 2008 NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Fellow defensive lineman, second year man Amobi Okoye, should also emerge as a force this season. Okoye racked up 5 sacks in his first 4 NFL games last fall (At the age of 20!) and the blog is hearing that he's had a great offseason. Now a seasoned veteran at age 21, Okoye could have a big year, especially with opposing teams focusing on Williams. DT Travis Johnson is another former first round pick who has the talent to be a good player. DE Anthony Weaver is a solid veteran who benefits from playing opposite Super Mario. Veterans like Jeff Zgonia, N.D. Kalu Rosevelt Colvin add depth to what could be a dominant defensive front.

* Williams and Okoye aren't the only emerging young stars on the Texans defense: Middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans is already one of the NFL's best. As a rookie in 2006, Ryans finished 2nd in the NFL in tackles and he was again among the NFL's leaders last year despite playing through a torn PCL in December. Ryans turned 24 in July and should only get better, especially with the benefit of playing behind such a good defensive line.

* The centerpiece of the Texans offense is WR Andre Johnson, a player the blog considers to be the league's most underrated wideout. Johnson missed 7 games last season due to injury, and in his absence the Texans went 2-5. With a healthy Johnson in the lineup for the other 9 games, Houston posted a record of 6-3, with the defeats coming @ CLE, @ TEN, and @ IND. Not exactly embarassing losses. Despite playing in barely more than half the season, Johnson caught 60 passes for 851 yards, and 8 TDs. In the 2 games before his injury, Andre had 14 catches for 262 yards and 3 TDs in back-to-back Texans wins. Johnson and reliable TE Owen Daniels will be going into their 2nd season working with QB Matt Schaub and the passing game should be greatly improved. Johnson should have a huge season in 2008.

* For years, the Texans most glaring weakness has been their offensive line. (Well, their OL and the fact that David Carr can't play were both big factors but the offensive line has always received the most blame.) On paper, the offensive line should be very solid in 2008, especially if Duane Brown, the team's first round pick out of Virginia Tech, can handle protecting Matt Schaub's blind side. Right tackle Eric Winston (A former tight end at Miami-FL) is an athletic player who is getting better, while G Chester Pitts is a very solid veteran interior lineman. Highly regarded Alex Gibbs (The long time Denver Broncos offensive line coach) has been brought in by former Broncos quarterback and assistant coach Gary Kubiak to get the ground game going and his track record speaks for itself.

* Considering they are in the most competitive division of the more competitive NFL conference, the Texans have a relatively favorable schedule. Houston went 6-2 at home last season and could be favored in every out-of-division game they play at Reliant Stadium this season. In addition to the automatic dates with the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans, the Texans will be hosting the Ravens, Dolphins, Lions, Bengals, and Bears this season. All 5 of those teams finished with losing records a year ago. Road games in Cleveland, Green Bay, and Oakland all appear to be very winnable, as well.

Obviously, it's not all positives in Houston. After all, this is a franchise that has never even been to the postseason. The running back situation is a mess but Alex Gibbs always seemed to churn out good ground games in Denver and I like his chances of finding a reliable running back out of a group that includes former Titan Chris Brown and rookie speedster Steve Slaton. The defensive backfield is also a big question mark, especially with #1 cornerback Dunta Robinson being placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list and therefore ineligible to play during the first 6 weeks of the regular season.

However, this is a very talented young team that has a chance to sneak up on a lot of people this season. Williams, Johnson, Okoye, Ryans, and Robinson are all potential stars and if QB Matt Schaub can have another solid season and Alex Gibbs can find a way to develop a reliable ground game, this team could be really good.

Especially since I see potential problems with each of their division foes:

* People have been calling for the downfall of the Indianapolis Colts for years and Peyton Manning always seems to prove them wrong. The Colts should be really good again this season but Manning's injury has to be cause for concern. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are both coming off injury plagued seasons. Marvin Harrison is on the back end of his career. Center Jeff Saturday, who has held together the Colts' offensive line for years, is injured and projected to be out for 6 weeks. This team is getting older and everyone has to come down sometime.

* The Jacksonville Jaguars are a trendy pick to contend for the Super Bowl this season, after a very solid 2007 campaign that included a playoff win in Pittsburgh. However, the Jaguars lost DT Marcus Stroud to the Bills in free agency and their 1st round pick, DE Derrick Harvey from Florida, held out all of training camp and is just now practicing with the team. Their defense should be very good again but this team is getting older and too many people are humping them. I don't see them going back to the postseason.

* The Tennessee Titans made the playoffs in 2007, despite Vince Young throwing 17 picks versus just 9 TDs, a mediocre crew of running backs, and not having a single WR that the average NFL fan could name. Their defense, lead by the NFL's best defensive tackle, Albert Haynesworth, is very underrated but I don't see any way this team can repeat the success they had last year. They only made the playoffs last season because the Colts had nothing to play for on the last day of the regular season. I feel like everything went right for these guys last year and it's not happening again.

Having said all that, here's how I rank them in the AFC South:

1. Colts
2. Texans
3. Jaguars
4. Titans


The blog is recommending playing the Texans 'Over' wins. I also took a shot on them to win it all which I feel was worth it at more than 100-1. The Giants won the Super Bowl last season so you can't write off anything as impossible. One thing I loved about having the Texans as my sleeper team was that I thought I was the only one. While the whole word is humping 'Sleepers' like the Browns, Vikings, or Jets, I thought I was the only who liked Houston. Then I stumbled upon this article on FoxSports: Sifting Through the Sleepers

Not only does this guy look like a complete dope, he actually admits in writing to the fact that he picked Jay Cutler as his darkhorse NFL MVP last season. Yikes.


Naturally, reading this article made me feel sick but I decided to go ahead with this blog anyway. I figured that I could either keep my Texans pick secret and quietly curse myself as a moron when they finish 5-11, or write a lengthy blog on why I think they will be good, thus providing my friends and co-workers with plenty of ammunition to mock me when they finish 5-11. Option B seemed like it would be a lot more fun for everyone.

Houston plays 4 of their first 5 games against playoff teams from last season, so we will find out right away if these guys are any good. If they could get through that stretch at 2-3, I would feel like they were in excellent shape. Their remaining schedule is very negotiable, particulary their final three games of: Titans, @ Raiders, and Bears. The Texans could be favored in all of those games.

Houston will finally make the postseason this year.


I'll leave the NFC North poll up there until tomorrow. The Vikings are running away with it. How does that make you feel, Chris? I'll do a normal blog in a few days. I'm just out of that hilarious and original Jorgen purse material right now.



Enjoy the jinx.