Football season is officially

.... here so I figured I might as well bring the blog back from the dead. For a day at least. I am fascinated by Thursday night's Oregon - Boise St game. When I first looked at the line of 6-6.5, I actually thought it seemed light. I liked Boise so much that I told Ed I was tempted to bet Oregon. You know, because I'm such an idiot.

Boise loses at home about as often as Hoffman turns down a lap dance from a black chick, so I figured that the Broncos seemed too good to be true. But then Ed's kids came in by the bunches to bet the Ducks. The Ducks? Wait what? Who do these kids think they are betting the road dog in a nationally televised game? What's going on here? And these weren't small bets. Some of these bets were for amounts so large they would keep Jeff Sherman interested. Well, probably. The line has been bet down all the way to 3 and who knows - maybe it will go even lower before kickoff?

To a normal person, this would be considered a good thing. I like Side A. All of America likes Side B. This should be every gambler's dream. Only you're forgetting one thing - I am a complete idiot who doesn't know shit about college football or how to pick winners.

In an effort to remedy that problem, I did a little research. Very little. Here's what I came up with:

Boise St has lost 2 home games in the last 10 years. They lost to Boston College in a bowl game in 2005. (I believe that was a Matt Ryan quarterbacked team, by the way.) They also lost to Washington State in 2001. It should be noted that the Boise program was not as strong as it is now back in 2001. It should also be noted that back then Washington St was giving out football scholarships.

Other fast facts:

* Chris Bennett is absolutely right (Big surprise there) about Boise St.'s lack of quality out of conference opponents. The best home wins they have in the last 10 years are a blowout over Oregon St and a 1 point win over BYU.

* If we all agree that Boise St plays garbage during the regular season, then a true barometer of how good they really are would be their postseason performance. I wonder how many people realize that over their last 5 bowl games, they are just 1-4? The lone win being the miraculous one over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl 2 years ago. However, they are 3-2 ATS in those games, covering in losses to Louisville and TCU.

* Boise St was up 37-13 last year at Oregon before the Ducks rallied to make it interesting.

* Oregon returns just one starter each on the offensive and defensive lines.

* Seven of my nine sets of power rankings pick Boise St to go 13-0.

* Oops. I stole that one from Phil Steele. Sorry about that.

* I actually only have 8 sets of power rankings.

* This may be the biggest game ever played on the Smurf Turf. The fans are going to be all riled up. And you don't want to see people from Idaho all riled up.

* So I went from thinking that Oregon had to be the right play because I liked Boise so much, to thinking that Boise had to be a super strong play because the kids are all acting like betting the Ducks in this game is just printing money. But looking at Boise's schedule over the years, they really have never faced a regular season test like this one. At the same time, you have to give them credit for only losing one home game since 2001, which again was to a Boston College team that didn't have a first year head coach and did have an NFL QB. It would take one helluva effort by the Ducks to go into Boise and come out with a win considering that they have a first year head coach and just 9 returning starters.

* Ultimately, I will recommend a *small to medium sized* (More on this below) play on Boise St -3. If it goes to -2.5 bet more but not way more. 3 is not the key number in college that it is in the NFL. At least I don't think so. The fact that Bennett's face is changing colors right now appears to indicate that he disagrees with me. As does the steam coming out of his ears. I'm going to wrap this up.

* $100-$200 if you are John Murray*

* $500-$1,000 if you are Chris Bennett*

* Whatever the amount you have to bet to get 6 drink tickets from the ticket writer if you are Scott Hoffman*

* Whatever the casino takes because that's what you bet on everything if you are Matt Metcalf*

* 2 fully loaded Brinks trucks if you are Jeff Sherman*

* I actually don't have any sets of power rankings.


- It's possible that I came back to the blog just to entertain myself due to the complete lack of good television shows going on right now after the season finale of Weeds on Monday. It is amazing to me that I used to be a huge fan of Entourage. I always thought that people who complained about how much The Sopranos slipped in its later years were just being elitist, show-off douchebags but I don't know how any one could possibly argue with people saying that Entourage has slipped terribly since its first two seasons. There doesn't even appear to be any story lines at this point. It's nothing but brutally painful scenes with the least interesting characters. Awful season for that show. Luckily, a new season of Curb Your Enthusiasm is mere weeks away....

- My plan for my next blog is to do a brief (Once i get into a typing groove brief means about 10,000 words) preview of all 8 NFL divisions, in which I pick a winner of each, then make a Super Bowl pick. There is literally no way I could pick any possible Super Bowl outcome without being mocked. The other day, Matt told me that he mentioned a bet to Ed and Ed mocked him. Then Matt mentioned that he liked the other side of the same bet and Ed mocked that side, too. Sometimes you just can't win....

- One potential format for football season could have me doing a "Breakdown" of one game each week like I just did for the Oregon - Boise St. tilt. This would be very entertaining for the readers, as they could rip me for my stupid pick before the game and cash their tickets on the other side after the game.

- Oh, uh.... Jorgen carries a purse.




Enjoy the game!