2008 AFC NORTH PREVIEW

A few days ago, I was mad at Jeff for not reading my blog any more but between his IPhone, his MySpace page, his Golf Website, and his new Italian class, I can see why he doesn't have the time to thumb through my pointless ramblings.

With that in mind, I have erased the 2,000 word essay I had written badmouthing him and everything he stands for, and replaced it with my first NFL Division preview of the season. Here's my take on the 2008 AFC North:


BALTIMORE RAVENS


The Good:

* The defense still has Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, and Chris McAlister, all of whom are capable of Pro Bowl seasons. Lewis and McAlister are getting older but this team definitely has a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

* In 2006, the Ravens went 13-3, won the AFC North, and earned a first round bye but lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Colts in the Divisional Playoffs. A lot of players from that team will take the field for Baltimore in 2008.

* Brian Billick was always overrated and new coach John Harbaugh could breathe new life into this team. Harbaugh comes over from a great winning tradition in Philadelphia. (Mock? What mock? I don't know what you're talking about....)


The Bad

* The offense is garbage. Willis McGahee's knee could go at any time. The QB situation is so bad that Troy Smith is starting preseason games. They don't have any reliable WRs besides Derrick Mason and he's 34. The offensive line was a mess last year without LT Jonathan Ogden.

* Ray Lewis and Trevor Pryce are 33. Samari Rolle is 32. Chris McAlister and Kelly Gregg are 31. The defense is good but a lot of the key players are getting older.

* The Ravens went 1-7 on the road last year, with their only "W" coming in a 9-7 victory at San Francisco. You can't go anywhere in the NFL if you can't win away from home.


Keep An Eye On:

Ray Rice, RB. The 2nd round pick was very productive at Rutgers and could have a solid season if McGahee gets injured or underperforms.


Season Outlook:

The Ravens offense will struggle in 2008 but they should definitely be far more competitive than they were last season. Baltimore's turnover differential in 2007 was -17, the very worst in the NFL. (Incidentally, in 2006 their turnover differential was +15, the very best in the NFL. Not hard to figure out why they finished 8 games worse in the standings last year.) The AFC North is wide open but matches up with the NFC East and AFC South, meaning that it's very unlikely we will see two teams make the playoffs out of this division.


With a Gun to My Head I Would:

Bet them 'Over' 6 wins. The Ravens won 5 games last season with the worst turnover differential in the NFL, in a season that was so disastrous that it resulted in them getting rid of their Head Coach and starting QB. I don't see any way they are worse than that in 2008.


CINCINNATI BENGALS


The Good:

* What do Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Rudi Johnson, and Willie Anderson have in common? They are all offensive players for the Bengals that have represented the team in Hawaii. That's a lot of Pro Bowl players on one side of the ball.

* LB Keith Rivers, the team's first round draft pick, should have an immediate impact and be a leading contender to win the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year.

* The Bengals have rid themselves of troublemakers like LB Odell Thurman and WR Chris Henry (Although there has recently been talk about the team bringing Henry back) and it appears that they are trying to put their many off field issues behind them.


The Bad:

* When Marvin Lewis was in Baltimore, he was considered a defensive genius. However, over the last 3 seasons the Bengals defense has ranked 27th, 30th, and 28th in the league. Perhaps it was the players in Baltimore, not Lewis, who made that defense so good?

* Here's the Bengals road schedule in 2008: Baltimore, N.Y. Giants, Dallas, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. The line for that Bengals-Ravens game is currently 'Pick' and it's possible that the Bengals could be an underdog in all 7 of their subsequent road games.

* Chad Johnson and DE Antwan Odom are already dealing with injuries and Rudi Johnson was a shell of his former self last season. Meanwhile, the offensive line really missed G Eric Steinbach last year. It could be argued that this particular group of players peaked with 2005's AFC North Division championship team.


Keep An Eye On:

Ben Utecht, TE. The former Colt (And Golden Gopher) had to compete with Dallas Clark for playing time in Indianapolis. He could do big things in this offense.


Season Outlook:

You just don't see a lot of NFL teams with this much talent get so little attention during the offseason. A talented and overlooked team in a wide open division could be very dangerous. But again I have to point to the Bengals tough schedule and the loaded AFC. I just don't see two teams making the playoffs out of this divison.


With a Gun to My Head I Would:

Bet them 'Under' 7.5 wins. The Bengals have a lot of issues and I don't trust Marvin Lewis. A tough schedule could cost Lewis his job.


CLEVELAND BROWNS


The Good:

* General Manager Phil Savage has done a tremendous job on Draft Day in recent years, bringing in stud players like Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, and Joe Thomas. All three of them are very young, very good, and will only get better.

* The Browns have one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL. Don't believe me? They opened enough holes last season to enable Jamal Lewis to rush for 1,304 yards. Now that's impressive.

* After an opening day loss to the Steelers, the Browns rebounded to win their last 7 home games in 2007. You don't just go into Cleveland Browns stadium....


The Bad:

* As good as the offense was in 2007, the defense was terrible, ranking 30th in the NFL. The Browns traded for DTs Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams from the Lions and Packers, respectively, but I am always wary of moves like these. If Rogers and Williams are so good why would their old teams be willing to give them up for mid round draft choices?

* On a defense that is bad overall, the Browns secondary is particularly weak. Corners Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald would be backups on most teams and were consistely burned last season.

* I just don't believe that Jamal Lewis can put together another season like the one he had in 2007. His backups are Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison. What happens if Lewis does drastically drop off? How will Derek Anderson handle not having a reliable ground game?


Keep An Eye On:

Sean Jones, FS. People love to talk about oft-injured Bob Sanders and the wildly overrated Troy Polamalu but Jones is quietly blossoming into one of the best safeties in the AFC.


Season Outlook:

The Browns were one of the NFL's best stories last season, shocking everyone on their way to a 10-6 record. Now they have patched up the perceived holes in their lineup with quick fix trades and are ready to move up into the upper echelon of the NFL's elite. Right? I doubt it. In the NFL, it just doesn't work that way. A closer look at least season's Browns shows that their 10 wins came against opponents with a combined record of 55-105, a winning perecentage of .344. (Thanks to A. Ross for that stat.) Their schedule this year will not afford them the luxury of beating up on patises. Too many people are touting the Browns and with their defense, their head coach, and their schedule, I just don't see them having a good season.


With a Gun to My Head I Would:

Bet them 'Under' 8.5 wins. I can't believe I haven't done this yet. The Browns looked terrible on Monday night in the Meadowlands and could be this season's biggest disappointment. The way people are talking about them reminds me a lot of last year's 49ers.


PITTSBURGH STEELERS


The Good:

* I loved their draft. RB Rashad Mendenall and WR Limas Sweed will team with holdovers Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller to give the Steelers more offensive weapons than they have had in years.

* The Steelers defense was ranked #1 in the NFL last season in terms of yards allowed per game and #2 in the NFL in points allowed. With Dick LeBeau dialing up his trademark blitz packages, they should give opposing offenses fits against this season.

* QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,154 yards, 32 TDs, and 11 INTs in 2007. He is finally developing into the QB the media has been touting him as since his rookie season. If his offensive line can keep him healthy and give him time, he will have a huge season.


The Bad:

* The offensive line. They struggled last year and lost their best player, G Alan Faneca, to the Jets in free agency. They must do a better job of protecting Roethlisberger (Who was sacked an inexcusable 47 times last year) if this team is going to have any chance of contending in the AFC.

* Like the rest of the teams in their division, the Steelers will face a daunting schedule in 2008. Check out this 9 game stretch: @ Jax, @ Cin, NYG, @ Wash, Ind, SD, Cin, @ NE, Dal. Every one of those teams but the Bengals made the playoffs last year, the Jaguars knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs in Pittsburgh, the Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, and Chargers all won their respective divisions, and apparently the Giants somehow won the Super Bowl. Any way you look at it, that is a tough stretch.

* Punter Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL during training camp. That may not sound like a big deal but if you watched the Steelers last year, you would've seen Sepulveda's tremendous leg giving his team good field position time and time again. The two time Ray Guy award winner will be missed this season.


Keep An Eye On:

LaMarr Woodley, LB. The team's 2nd round pick in 2007 out of Michigan, Woodley will get a chance to start on the outside in the team's standard 3-4 defense. He could have a huge season rushing the passer opposite James Harrison.


Season Outlook:

The Steelers should be very good this season but a mediocre offensive line and a brutal schedule will keep them from contending for a bye in the always competitive AFC. Despite their schedule, I will call for them to win the AFC North for the second year in a row.


With a Gun to My Head I Would:

Bet them 'Over' 9 wins. But I'd much rather bet them to win the AFC North. The way I see it, having to play the AFC South and NFC East (In my opinion the 2 best divisions in the NFL) means that getting to 10 wins could be a struggle for the Steelers. However, the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns all match up with the same 2 divisions and therefore face just as hard a road as Pittsburgh does. 9 wins may be enough to win this division, so instead of betting the Steelers 'Over' wins, why not just bet them to win the North at +150, a bet that was available at the Venetian as recently as a couple weeks ago, despite me betting 5 Hoffman units on it. (I'm really not a big shot. One of those units was for Austin.)


Here's How I Rank Them:

1. Steelers
2. Bengals
3. Browns
4. Ravens



I like the Steelers to win the division and host a wild card game, probably against a team like the Colts, Jaguars, Bills, or Jets. This team is good enough to be a perennial contender but I don't see them as legitimate Super Bowl threat.

Let's get a new poll up there. I think we're all tired of the Olympics debate. Who do you guys think will win the AFC North? Now THAT is interesting.

Austin didn't appreciate the Michael Phelps picture. In fact, he tried to get me to a blog while I was work just so I would take it down. I guess he wanted a skimpier one? Dude, not cool....


Trivia Question for Tuesday: Which player lead the original "Dream Team" in scoring during the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona?

* Saturday's Answer: The Denver Dynamite beat the Pittsburgh Gladiators, 45-16, in the first ever Arena Bowl.

I know what you're thinking and yes, I did have to look that up.


Which division will I do next? You tell me what you want to see.



Enjoy the preview.