Sports Illustrated put out its

.... NFL preview edition this week and inspired me to do an NFL preview of my own. While it is true that I don't know anything about the NFL and am in no way qualified to offer up any predictions on the subject, I am going to do it anyway. And I fully anticipate my predictions to be more accurate than SI's resident assclown, Peter King.

I'm going to do division-by-division write-ups picking a winner of each, then select two wild card teams and make playoff projections. I should probably warn you now that I will not be making any jokes in this blog. And please save your own jokes for the end. CB - You may need to spread this out over about a week. It's pretty long. Thanks in advance.


NFC East

King has the division going Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins. I think Sports Illustrated has picked the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East something like 19 years in a row. I can remember being all excited to read SI's NFL Preview when I was a kid and always being crushed when they picked us to finish last. And this was back when the Cardinals were in the division and averaged about 3 wins per year for a decade.

The Giants won the East last season with relative ease, before falling to another member of the division, Ed's Eagles, in the divisional playoff round. On paper, the Eagles appear to be clearly the best team in the conference. They got rid of several players I didn't like (LJ Smith, Dawkins, Lito, etc....) and added depth along the offensive line and more weapons on offense. The defense lost Stewart Bradley to a torn ACL but I don't see that as being a big deal. I'm sure they can just plug in the next guy and he'll be every bit as mediocre as Bradley was. I like the additions of Jason Peters, Ellis Hobbs III, and LaSean McCoy and will call for an Eagles division title. I also made a bet on this.

The other teams in the division all have more glaring holes: The Giants have no clear #1 WR now that Burress is headed for jail. The Cowboys are still coached by Wade Phillips and appear to have done nothing to improve their team since Bill Parcells left 3 years ago. The Redskins offensive line is a lock to wear down as the season goes on.

Finishing Order:

1. Eagles
2. Redskins (WC)
3. Giants
4. Cowboys

(I actually think the Giants are better than the Redskins but I'm picking the Skins to finish second anyway behind the division's best defense.... Actually it's just because I am a fan and don't really give a fuck if it seems like a homer pick. Suck my balls, Peter King.)


NFC North

This could be the most interesting division in the NFL, mostly because the greatest player in league history is back in it.... on a different team this time. The real winner in the NFC North is America because we all get to watch Brett Favre play the game with the same child-like joy he has whilst winging the pigskin around in his backyard as his golden retriever looks on. But I suppose I could make a more specific prediction than that. Two NFC North teams are getting Super Bowl hype but I'm going to pick a third team, the Green Bay Packers, to win the division title and make a deep January run. The Packers have the division's best QB in Aaron Rodgers and a new Dom Capers-coached 3-4 defense that should be way better than the defense they had last season.

The Vikings have arguably the best defensive line in football, a very good offensive line, and the best RB in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, so it's hard to predict them to fall apart. At the same time I don't see how a team coached by Brad Childress and quarterbacked by a 40-year-old graybeard can be a legit Super Bowl contender. Chicago is getting way too much hype and I've never liked Jay Cutler, anyway. The Lions have nowhere to go but up but are clearly at the bottom of this group.

Finishing Order:

1. Packers
2. Vikings (WC)
3. Bears
4. Lions

NFC South

Carolina won this division last year and were joined in the playoffs by the upstart Atlanta Falcons. Blogcast followers know that I have a bet on the Falcons to win the division at 4-1 which I feel is a good bet, as I see this being 50/50 between Atlanta and the New Orleans Saints. Peter King picked the Falcons and he's an idiot. I bet the Falcons and I'm an idiot. So who is my official pick to win the South? I'm still going with Atlanta. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White all had great seasons last year and will enter their second year as a trio with Tony Gonzalez opening the field for all of them.

I hate the Panthers this year and don't see them contending for the division title or even a playoff berth. Everyone is way down on Tampa Bay this season, so I'll call for them to surprise a few people and win 7-8 games behind an underrated defense.

Finishing Order:

1. Falcons
2. Saints
3. Bucs
4. Panthers

NFC West

I'm constantly amazed by these kids betting on the Cardinals to win the Super Bowl at 30-1. Last season Arizona won the NFC West, hosted a first round playoff game, caught a huge break when the Eagles beat the Giants putting the conference title game in Arizona, and a running money line parlay on Arizona in the postseason alone would have still paid way more than 30-1. I don't even see the Cardinals making the playoffs this year and bet them under wins.

Seattle owned this division for years and I feel like the Cardinals were just borrowing it last season while the Seahawks were buried by a rash of injuries. I've heard different people talk about both the 49ers and Rams as sleepers. I don't see anything to like about the 49ers but I could see the Rams being a lot better this season. They drafted an offensive tackle with the second overall pick and sound like they are committed to establishing a tough ground game behind him.

Finishing Order:

1. Seahawks
2. Rams
3. Cardinals
4. 49ers

Wild Cards:

(3) Seahawks def. (6) Redskins
(5) Vikings def. (4) Falcons

Divisional Playoffs:

(2) Packers def. Seahawks
(1) Eagles def. Vikings

NFC Championship Game:

Eagles def. Packers

The Eagles make every effort to choke the game away but in the end Andy Reid and his outrageously highly power rated team head back to the Super Bowl.


AFC East

Last year the Patriots were coming off an 18-1 season and seemed like a virtual lock to win the AFC East. Then the Jets acquired America's Quarterback, Tom Terrific got injured on opening day, the Dolphins started using a high school offense, and when the playoffs started, New England was shockingly on the outside looking in. It was kind of a strange season in the AFC East. This year the Patriots are again a decisive favorite to win the East and I'm going out on a limb and saying that 2008 was a fluke and that the Pats will be back on top.

I've been telling people that the Jets are one of my favorite sleeper teams this season and I expect them to challenge for a playoff spot behind a very aggressive defense. How much of a drop is there between Favre and rookie Mark Sanchez really? I don't think it's that big of a difference. Favre kind of.... sucks. I bet Miami under wins and expect them to fall back this season. On paper the Bills have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, they fired their offensive coordinator a week before the season starts, and their best player has a reality show on VHI. Sounds like a last place season to me.

Finishing Order:

1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Dolphins
4. Bills

AFC North

Last season I made a bet on the Steelers to win the AFC North at +150 at the fabulous Venetian. I liked the bet so much that I also recommended it to several co-workers, some of whom miraculously took my advice and bet it, as well. I liked the bet so much not only because I thought Pittsburgh was going to have a good season but also because I was way down on the division co-favorites from last preseason - the Cleveland Browns. Well, I was right about the Steelers being good and I was right about the Browns being terrible, but what I didn't account for was that Baltimore had a great team last season and nearly stole the division. The Ravens defense was typically dominant and rookie QB Joe Flacco was great. Pittsburgh was lucky to win both regular season games against the Ravens and the division could have easily gone Baltimore's way.

This season, I'm going to pick the Ravens to win the North behind Flacco, that tough defense, and what should be a great running game. Most people probably don't realize that the Ravens led the NFL in rushing last season and the addition of first round pick Michael Oher should make them even more formidable on the ground. Pittsburgh will be right there as well and I bet the Bengals over wins, so apparently I like them. I have absolutely no idea what the Cleveland Browns are doing. It doesn't seem like they do either.

Finishing Order:

1. Ravens
2. Steelers (WC)
3. Bengals
4. Browns

AFC South

Tennessee was the best team in the NFL during the 2008 regular season. The Titans earned home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and dominated play between the 20's against the Ravens in the divisional round. Unfortunately, Jeff Fisher's guys repeatedly found ways to choke the game away before losing to the Ravens on a last minute field goal. Tennessee should have won that game and they should have been hosting the Steelers in the AFC Championship game the following weekend. It's very possible that the Titans would have won the Super Bowl if they could have beat Baltimore that day.

One thing I have learned about the NFL is that chances like the one the Titans had last season are few and far between. Tennessee may have been the best team in the NFL last season and maybe they should have won the Super Bowl. What does that guarantee for this season? Absolutely nothing. Especially in what I consider to be the best divison in the AFC and the second best division in the NFL behind the NFC East. In fact, I'm calling for the Titans to finish 3rd this season behind the Colts and Jaguars. I love Indianapolis this season. Nobody is talking about the Colts, who last I checked still have the best QB in the NFL, won 9 of their last 10 games last season, and are power rated so highly that they were favored on the road in San Diego in last season's wild card round.

I'm picking the Colts to win this division and also like Jacksonville to have a good season. The Jaguars drafted offensive tackles in each of the first two rounds and should be effective on the ground this year. The Houston Texans were my big sleeper pick last season but they seem to be one of those dreaded trendy sleepers in 2009, which means they will probably finish last. The Texans have a lot of good young players but they are an inevitable Matt Schaub injury away from starting Sexy Rexy at QB, and they will face a very tough schedule. I don't see it with them.

Finishing Order:

1. Colts
2. Jaguars (WC)
3. Titans
4. Texans

AFC West

I guess you could call this a divsion. I'm picking the Chargers to win it but all I'm going to talk about in this space is Shawne Merriman's arrest and the Raiders trading for Richard Seymour. When I heard that Merriman was being charged with choking and restraining a female guest, I wasn't even remotely surprised. He's a roided out NFL linebacker. He's capable of pretty much anything. What shocked me was that his guest was MTV reality personality Tila Tequila. Who knew that those two were dating? Must be nice playing for the Chargers. You get to live in San Diego and date slutty Asian TV stars. And no one seems to care that your best years were the direct result of you cheating and taking steroids.

For the life of me, I can't figure out what the Raiders were thinking trading their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots for Richard Seymour. Seymour is 29, he's in the last year of his contract, and what exactly is he going to bring to Oakland? It's not like they have any chance of contending for a playoff berth with him. It just makes no sense to trade what will almost certainly be a Top 10 pick for a guy who is 29 and on the downside of his career. The only time that a move like this would be even remotely justifiable would be when your team is a player away from contending for a Super Bowl, which obviously the Raiders are not. My advice to the Raiders is that if the Patriots are willing to make a trade with you, just assume that Belichick is right and you are wrong and hang up the phone immediately. Oh, uh the Chiefs are going to be mediocre at best, the Broncos are a mess and the Raiders are idiots. What a division!

Finishing Order:

1. Chargers
2. Chiefs
3. Broncos
4. Raiders


Wild Cards:

(3) Patriots def. (6) Jaguars
(4) Ravens def. (5) Steelers

Divisional Playoffs:

(2) Colts def. Patriots
Ravens def. (1) Chargers

AFC Championship Game:

Colts def. Ravens

To beat a defense as good as Baltimore's, you need a QB who won't make a lot of mistakes and you need to be able to run the ball effectively. Indy has the best QB in the game and they now have two RB's they can count on, just like they did 3 years ago when they won it all.

Super Bowl XLIV:

Colts 27 Eagles 23

This would be Ed's dream Super Bowl. His beloved Eagles facing off against the QB he considers to be the league's biggest choker. The one thing Ed is forgetting? The Eagles are even bigger chokers than Manning is. At least Peyton has one ring. I think he'll get another one this season. Sorry, bro.

The funny thing about making NFL predictions and posting them online is that there is no possible way I could be successful. No matter how good or bad these picks end up being, everyone will just mock them even though they most likely couldn't do any better themselves. I'm sure that last season at this time most people were picking the Patriots and Cowboys. They both missed the playoffs.

More interesting tidbits:

* Ed is not allowed to make any jokes about how dumb my picks are, seeing as how his pick to win the BCS Championship game was the Oklahoma Sooners. I hope you snapped up some 5-1, bro.

* However, if you think that Oklahoma is eliminated from the BCS you're an idiot. It's college football. It's retarded. Losing a game in September and losing a game in November are somehow two different things. If they beat Texas next month and some other teams in different conferences lose, the Sooners could absolutely end up in Pasadena.

* 50 years from now when college football has a playoff system, people are going to look back at this era and none of them are going to understand why we didn't just set up a playoff system. I know I don't understand it.

* I hate this new rule in college football where if you hit a guy above the shoulders it's automatically a penalty. On Saturday, I saw a player who had the ball and was in bounds get hit up high and draw a penalty flag. Again - He was IN BOUNDS and he HAD THE BALL. What exactly was the defender supposed to do? We are 20 years away from defensive players having to either escort the man with the ball out of bounds or try to just convince him to go down on his own through clever wordplay.

* I may be more qualified to do a preview like this than you think. After all, I am currently in first place in the Leroy's College Challenge. And that's through one whole week. Keep an eye on entry "Ray Drecker" as it plummets down the leader board in the coming weeks.

* When I told a friend of mine back home that I went 6-1 over the weekend, he paused and then said "How is that even fucking possible?" I'm glad I brought it up.

* I also have a joint entry with my brother and a 3 man entry with two friends of mine from high school. My brother and I are picking under the alias "Two Brothers" and are 4-3 through Week 1. For the record, my 4 picks went 4-0, while he served up a solid 0-3 effort. I hate my brother.

The entry I have with my buddies, "Tim Donaghy" is currently 4-3, as well.

* Four of the drivers I had match up bets on in the Pep Boys 500 went to the garage. None of the guys I bet against did. I bet two of those four guys multiple times. I may have lost a Sherman unit on that race. I hate NASCAR.

Until next week at least.

Boogity, boogity, boogity....



Sorry, Chris.

Football season is officially

.... here so I figured I might as well bring the blog back from the dead. For a day at least. I am fascinated by Thursday night's Oregon - Boise St game. When I first looked at the line of 6-6.5, I actually thought it seemed light. I liked Boise so much that I told Ed I was tempted to bet Oregon. You know, because I'm such an idiot.

Boise loses at home about as often as Hoffman turns down a lap dance from a black chick, so I figured that the Broncos seemed too good to be true. But then Ed's kids came in by the bunches to bet the Ducks. The Ducks? Wait what? Who do these kids think they are betting the road dog in a nationally televised game? What's going on here? And these weren't small bets. Some of these bets were for amounts so large they would keep Jeff Sherman interested. Well, probably. The line has been bet down all the way to 3 and who knows - maybe it will go even lower before kickoff?

To a normal person, this would be considered a good thing. I like Side A. All of America likes Side B. This should be every gambler's dream. Only you're forgetting one thing - I am a complete idiot who doesn't know shit about college football or how to pick winners.

In an effort to remedy that problem, I did a little research. Very little. Here's what I came up with:

Boise St has lost 2 home games in the last 10 years. They lost to Boston College in a bowl game in 2005. (I believe that was a Matt Ryan quarterbacked team, by the way.) They also lost to Washington State in 2001. It should be noted that the Boise program was not as strong as it is now back in 2001. It should also be noted that back then Washington St was giving out football scholarships.

Other fast facts:

* Chris Bennett is absolutely right (Big surprise there) about Boise St.'s lack of quality out of conference opponents. The best home wins they have in the last 10 years are a blowout over Oregon St and a 1 point win over BYU.

* If we all agree that Boise St plays garbage during the regular season, then a true barometer of how good they really are would be their postseason performance. I wonder how many people realize that over their last 5 bowl games, they are just 1-4? The lone win being the miraculous one over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl 2 years ago. However, they are 3-2 ATS in those games, covering in losses to Louisville and TCU.

* Boise St was up 37-13 last year at Oregon before the Ducks rallied to make it interesting.

* Oregon returns just one starter each on the offensive and defensive lines.

* Seven of my nine sets of power rankings pick Boise St to go 13-0.

* Oops. I stole that one from Phil Steele. Sorry about that.

* I actually only have 8 sets of power rankings.

* This may be the biggest game ever played on the Smurf Turf. The fans are going to be all riled up. And you don't want to see people from Idaho all riled up.

* So I went from thinking that Oregon had to be the right play because I liked Boise so much, to thinking that Boise had to be a super strong play because the kids are all acting like betting the Ducks in this game is just printing money. But looking at Boise's schedule over the years, they really have never faced a regular season test like this one. At the same time, you have to give them credit for only losing one home game since 2001, which again was to a Boston College team that didn't have a first year head coach and did have an NFL QB. It would take one helluva effort by the Ducks to go into Boise and come out with a win considering that they have a first year head coach and just 9 returning starters.

* Ultimately, I will recommend a *small to medium sized* (More on this below) play on Boise St -3. If it goes to -2.5 bet more but not way more. 3 is not the key number in college that it is in the NFL. At least I don't think so. The fact that Bennett's face is changing colors right now appears to indicate that he disagrees with me. As does the steam coming out of his ears. I'm going to wrap this up.

* $100-$200 if you are John Murray*

* $500-$1,000 if you are Chris Bennett*

* Whatever the amount you have to bet to get 6 drink tickets from the ticket writer if you are Scott Hoffman*

* Whatever the casino takes because that's what you bet on everything if you are Matt Metcalf*

* 2 fully loaded Brinks trucks if you are Jeff Sherman*

* I actually don't have any sets of power rankings.


- It's possible that I came back to the blog just to entertain myself due to the complete lack of good television shows going on right now after the season finale of Weeds on Monday. It is amazing to me that I used to be a huge fan of Entourage. I always thought that people who complained about how much The Sopranos slipped in its later years were just being elitist, show-off douchebags but I don't know how any one could possibly argue with people saying that Entourage has slipped terribly since its first two seasons. There doesn't even appear to be any story lines at this point. It's nothing but brutally painful scenes with the least interesting characters. Awful season for that show. Luckily, a new season of Curb Your Enthusiasm is mere weeks away....

- My plan for my next blog is to do a brief (Once i get into a typing groove brief means about 10,000 words) preview of all 8 NFL divisions, in which I pick a winner of each, then make a Super Bowl pick. There is literally no way I could pick any possible Super Bowl outcome without being mocked. The other day, Matt told me that he mentioned a bet to Ed and Ed mocked him. Then Matt mentioned that he liked the other side of the same bet and Ed mocked that side, too. Sometimes you just can't win....

- One potential format for football season could have me doing a "Breakdown" of one game each week like I just did for the Oregon - Boise St. tilt. This would be very entertaining for the readers, as they could rip me for my stupid pick before the game and cash their tickets on the other side after the game.

- Oh, uh.... Jorgen carries a purse.




Enjoy the game!