.... supervisor I log a lot of transactions. We call them MTLs, or multiple transaction logs. I have to do an MTL any time a customer bets or cashes out more than $3,000 in cash, or any time their total bets add up to over 5 grand, regardless of whether they use cash, chips, or are betting off old tickets. While the delicate geniuses that are my work superiors sit in the back room and conceive the lines that allow our book to win the big money that pays all of our salaries, it is my job to log these MTLs.
On my first day back from a trip home in May, I somehow managed to mess up two MTLs. The next day, one of these aforementioned geniuses gave me a tongue lashing about how I needed to be more careful and pay more attention. Fair enough. He was right. Looking back on it now I can't help but wonder - What would have happened if I had only logged 6 out of 24 MTLs correctly that day? My manager might have given me more than just a tongue lashing had I gone 6 for 24. That's not very good. It's terrible, really. Imagine if you were a waiter and on a given night you were working 24 tables. And you only got 6 of their orders correct. You'd probably be fired on the spot. You'd deserve to be fired. Imagine if you were an emergency medical surgeon and you only saved 6 out of 24 lives? What if Peter Gibbons only properly filled out 6 of 24 T.P.S. reports? What if the writers of Entourage only produced a good script 6 out of every 24 episodes?!
Okay, that last one was a bad example. That would actually be a huge improvement for the Entourage writing staff. My point is that 6 out of 24 is not good. It's not even just bad. It is a terrible percentage and certainly not one that should lead to any sort of accolades. Kobe Bryant winning the NBA Finals MVP after a Game 7 performance like that is a joke. I realize that the Finals MVP is given to the best player in the series, not just Game 7, but the bottom line is that the series came down to Game 7, the biggest game of Kobe's career, the biggest NBA game of my lifetime, and the so-called MVP laid an egg, going 6-24 from the field and 0-6 from beyond the arc. Kobe needlessly threw up countless terrible shots that had no chance of going in. The Celtics didn't play well and it was Kobe's awful shot selection and the resulting wasted Lakers possessions that allowed Boston to build what at one point was a double digit second half lead.
I hate when I hear that "Kobe found a way to win the game." That's not true. Kobe didn't find a way to win the game. The Lakers team did. Pau Gasol did. He scored 19 points, grabbed 18 rebounds (9 offensive), dished out 4 assists, and blocked 2 shots. Ron Artest found a way to win. He came up huge on both ends of the floor, with 20 points and 5 steals. It was Artest, not Kobe, who stepped up and hit the crucial three pointer late in the 4th quarter that virtually sealed the Lakers 16th championship. As usual, the refs did their part to help out L.A. The Lakers went to the line 37 times in Game 7, compared to 17 trips to the stripe for Boston. The 17 free throws attempted by the Celtics in the game were actually one less than the Lakers shot in the 4th quarter alone. Seems fair.
I realize Game 7 isn't the whole series. There were 6 other games that got us to that final clash. But Game 7 is obviously the biggest part of the series. It's a career defining moment. You wouldn't give the Super Bowl MVP to a guy who played a terrible 4th quarter in a close game. You wouldn't give the World Series MVP to a starting pitcher who got shelled in Game 7. You wouldn't give the Conn Smythe Trophy to a player who didn't show up for the decisive game of the Stanley Cup Final. So why does Kobe get the Finals MVP? I just don't understand it.
Of course, I don't understand much about Kobe's career and the infatuation that the city of Los Angeles and most of the country has with him. I keep hearing about this tally of Kobe 5 LeBron 0 as evidence that Bryant is better than King James. This argument makes no sense to me. Kobe won 3 titles as Shaq's sidekick 10 years ago while LeBron was in high school. What does that have to do with who is the better player as we head into the 2010-2011 season? Absolutely nothing. Yes, Kobe has delivered two titles since he forced the Lakers to choose between himself and Shaq, but who is to say that he didn't cost them two championships (Perhaps more?) with his selfishness? Shaq had a few good years left in the tank (He was the 2nd best player on Miami's 2006 title team) and with some good role players and the refs in their pockets, the Lakers may have won 2-3 more titles with Shaq and Kobe paired together.
How could the guy being called the "Greatest Laker Ever" be the same guy who broke up a budding dynasty for the franchise? How could the Greatest Laker Ever be the same guy who reportedly asked for a trade and even flirted with the idea of signing with the Clippers? The Greatest Laker Ever couldn't win a damn thing without a premier big man on his team. During his early years as the #2 guy on Shaq's Lakers, Kobe went to the postseason every year, reached the NBA Finals four times, and won three straight world championships. During the three seasons since David Stern and the NBA forced the Memphis Grizzlies at gunpoint to trade Pau Gasol to the Lakers for nothing, Kobe has won a total of 11 playoff series, three straight Western Conference titles, and the last two world championships. Contrast that with the three years Kobe didn't count O'Neal or Gasol as a teammate. During those seasons, the Lakers won a total of zero playoff series, even missing the postseason entirely in 2004-05. Let me know when LeBron misses the playoffs.
Bottom line: Kobe is a very good player who has spent almost his entire career in a great situation. Beyond great, really. Bryant has spent the majority of his career with the most successful head coach in American sports history on his bench. Other than the 2005-2007 seasons, (Coincidentally the same seasons he couldn't get out of the first round of the playoffs) Kobe has always had a great big man on his team. And as a career Los Angeles Laker, Kobe has always benefited from having the refs in the collective pocket of his team. Getting 20 more free throws than the Celtics in Game 7 was one thing, but the Lakers 2002 title was practically handed to them by the officials, who refused to let the superior Sacramento Kings beat them in the Western Conference Finals. If LeBron ever has a world class center, an excellent supporting cast, a Hall of Fame coach, and the refs giving him and his team every call, and he STILL can't win a title, then I'll admit that Kobe is the better player. Until that day, I still say James is easily the best individual basketball player on the planet.
I haven't filed a blog since the whole Donovan McNabb to the Redskins debacle back in April. I'm still not happy about that and have no hope for my Redskins this fall. Here's what else is going on:
* I've been watching a lot of the World Cup. It's probably my favorite sporting event with the NFL Playoffs as the only possible exception. I loved that U.S.A. team and truly believe that they were better than Ghana. It's just a shame that they wasted such a great opportunity. There is no guarantee that they will even qualify for the World Cup in 2014 and certainly no guarantee that they will get out of the group stage. It's also likely that they will never again have as great a draw as they did this year. All they needed to do was beat Ghana and Uruguay and they would have been in the semifinals of the World Cup! Team U.S.A. will very likely send better sides to the World Cup in the future but we may never see such an easy path to the Cup Final again.
* With my biggest baseball future bet on the Texas Rangers off to a good start, I'm turning my attention elsewhere. Bets have been placed on the Chicago Bulls to win the 2011 NBA Championship at both 20-1 and 18-1. Obviously, the hope there is that Chicago signs LeBron James in the coming weeks and that Chris Bosh follows him to the Windy City. I'm not a big fan of Bosh but do love Bulls PG Derrick Rose. James is pretty good, too. That would be a great team and it'd be very nice to have a 20-1 ticket in my pocket heading into the 2010-2011 season.
* Also made a bet on the San Diego Chargers to win the Super Bowl at 14-1. As usual, the best Super Bowl odds in Vegas were found at the Venetian. I hate Norv Turner and it does concern me that McNeil and Jackson are holding out. However, San Diego appears to be easily the class of the AFC West, and they should benefit from playing four games against the NFC West. Their easy schedule could result in another high playoff seed, maybe even home field advantage. I always like to bet on teams that no one is talking about (Like the Colts last season) and I like teams that have dumped overrated big name players like the Chargers did by cutting ties with RB LaDainian Tomlinson and CB Antonio Cromartie. I'm still looking at a couple other teams to bet on in the NFL. Will pass that info along.
* The Bulls bet and the Chargers bet look good but my favorite future bet of the moment is definitely my play on the Florida Gators. I've been telling everyone to get down on the Gators and the more I look at it, consider it to be my favorite future bet ever. My bets are in at 24-1, 22-1, and 20-1 but I would consider betting more at 15-1 or higher. The Gators preseason odds to win the BCS title have been mostly in the range of 4-1 to 8-1 the last few years and now all of a sudden they are up to 20? I realize they lost Haden, Spikes, Dunlap, Pouncey, and of course, Tim Tebow, among others, but I think those odds are a huge overreaction.
Florida is a great football PROGRAM. They are almost always atop the list of college football's top recruiting classes and all those blue chip recruits have spent the last 2-3 years redshirting and learning the system under Head Coach Urban Meyer and his staff. Consider the case of QB John Brantley. The 2006 Gatorade National High School Player of the year redshirted in 2007 and spent the 2008 and 2009 seasons as Tebow's backup, learning the offense and putting up huge stats in garbage time. Now as a redshirt junior, it's Brantley's time to put up huge numbers in Meyer's offense. Brantley is a better passer than Tebow and may end up being the better player. Meyer's offense was wildly successful before Tebow came along, and it will continue to be successful going forward. Alabama lost both the starting QB (John Parker Wilson) and best player (LT Andre Smith) from their 2008 team and went on to win the national championship in 2009. Duke's basketball team lost their best player from two years ago (Leading scorer Gerald Henderson) and won it all the very next season. College sports are about the program, not the individual player.
The same way Florida has Brantley in position to replace Tebow, the Gators have other highly regarded recruits waiting in the wings to replace the players they lost to the National Football League. They also play a very favorable SEC schedule in which they will likely be an underdog just one time - October 2nd on the road against defending national champions Alabama. For all the hype that game will receive, it may prove to be meaningless if the two teams end up staging a rematch in December's SEC Championship game. The winner of that neutral field game would be the one playing for the BCS Title in Glendale, Arizona in January. Get your money down on the Gators.
* I was at Pebble Beach two weekends ago for the U.S. Open. Considering that I had a bet on Dustin Johnson that went up in flames early Sunday and that I suffered a Top 5 all time personal worst sunburn, it was still a great trip. Very scenic views and it was very cool seeing Tiger, Mickelson, Els, Vijay, Watson, etc. battling the extremely difficult course. I'd blog more about it but I was drinking most of the time so I don't have anything interesting to say.
* I'd also like to say that I will produce a blog about this Saturday night's UFC 116 card that I will be in attendance for. But again the drinking may prevent me from doing so. However, a recap of my drunken night at the Lesnar-Carwin fight might actually be better than my other current blog idea: A 5,000 word rant about how Mike Shanahan may not actually be that great of a coach, considering that he has won a total of 1 playoff game in 13 seasons as an NFL Head Coach without John Elway as his quarterback. Note: John Elway will not be quarterbacking the 2010 Washington Redskins.
That feels like enough for today. I need to mentally prepare myself for this afternoon's pickup basketball game. When you're 27 years old and still occasionally drink like a college kid, these games can be more grueling than one would think.
Go read something else.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Monday, April 5, 2010
I was sitting at a bar
....inside the Indianapolis airport last night waiting for my flight back to Vegas. My buddies had already caught their flight back to the D.C. area and I was left all alone to think about how much money I had spent and how much money I had lost gambling over the previous 48 hours.
Good news came in the form of a text from Jeff Sherman confirming that we had gone 2-0-1 in golf match up bets for the week. Nice. Love The Sherm. More good news - word from Metcalf that The Group was betting the under in a girls-trying-to-play-basketball game and they were giving me a piece. Being included in a bet by The Group is even better than winning. Very nice. Love The Group. Things were starting to turn around as I ordered my second beer.
It was around this time that my evening really began to spiral out of control. Apparently, inclement weather in Chicago was forcing all flights there to be canceled. Normally this wouldn't affect my life whatsoever. However, a middle aged woman who had been bound for the Windy City had just plopped down on the bar stool next to mine and began talking my ear off about her predicament. I must have a sign on my back that says "Tell Me About Your Boring Problems" when I'm at the airport because this sort of thing seems to happen to me all too frequently. I will try to recap our conversation for my readers. Keep in mind that I was tuning her out as much as humanly possible and barely remember a word she said because I was so uninterested in everything that was coming out of her yap. So basically it was no different than any conversation I have with any woman.
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah blah blah flight to Chicago blah blah blah canceled blah blah blah weather.
Me (looking at a girls basketball game on TV instead of her): Yeah?
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah blah blah they are making us pay for own hotel rooms blah blah blah they say weather is out of their control blah blah blah.
Me (never taking my eyes off the TV): Damn. That sucks.
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah blah blah Isn't that ridiculous? Blah blah blah.
Me: Yes. Ridiculous.
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah.....
Me: Check please.
As I was in the process of paying my check I noticed that another TV at the bar, which was showing ESPNEWS, had just flashed a story about Donovan McNabb. I'm 27 now and my vision is starting to slip and from where I was sitting I would have sworn it said McNabb was now a Raider. That would have made perfect sense considering all the McNabb-to-Oakland chatter during the previous week. I still had to walk closer to the TV to confirm. As I got closer I could see the words on the screen more clearly.
"ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that the Eagles have traded QB Donovan McNabb to the Redskins." Not the Raiders. The Redskins. My dumb idiot asshole retard Redskins had made yet another ridiculous trade, no doubt giving up a high draft choice for a washed up player at the back end of his career. Again. Yet again.
What. The. Fuck.
I paid my tab and stormed out of the bar towards Gate B21. I wanted to know exactly what we gave up to acquire a QB who will turn 34 during the regular season and is due an 8 figure salary for the year. Although in the back of my mind I already knew. The Eagles had publicly stated their asking price of a Top 42 draft pick in exchange for McNabb and the Redskins held the 37th overall pick in this month's draft. I still wanted to know for sure, so I called the biggest NFL fan in my phone - Superbook manager Ed Salmons, who also doubles as an Eagles die hard. The McNabb deal was such a fresh story that even he didn't know the exact details of the trade. I called my brother and through a barrage of expletives he informed me that, as I expected, the Skins had given up their 2010 2nd round pick and just for good measure had also tossed in a 3rd or 4th round pick in 2011. Great. Already giving up our picks in next year's draft. Good decision, guys. No teams ever build championship rosters through the draft.
I started receiving a lot of phone calls and texts. Curse words and offensive pet names for McNabb from some of my buddies who root for the Skins. Mocks and taunts from friends who like Philly. And a few people who just wanted to know what I thought of the deal. I was so flustered all I could say to a few friends was that I thought it was unbelievable that the Redskins could do something so stupid. Unbelievable that they could continue to make the same mistakes they have been making for 10+ years. And unbelievable that no matter who is in charge that they continue to do the same dumb things year after year.
Allow me to elaborate:
1. This trade is exactly why I didn't want the Redskins to hire Mike Shananan as their head coach. Although I admit that Shanahan is a good football mind and obviously an upgrade over Jim Zorn, I never wanted him because I assumed that a coach who will be 58 on opening day and who has already won 2 Super Bowl championships would not be interested in a rebuilding job. Obviously, I was right about that.
2. I keep hearing this talk about how McNabb is a big upgrade over the Redskins incumbent QB, Jason Campbell, and how his presence alone will make the Redskins a much better team. Um, are we sure about this? Here are some statistics from 2009:
Player A: 16 starts, 3,618 passing yards, 64.5% completions, 20 TD, 15 INT
Player B: 14 starts, 3,553 passing yards, 60.3% completions, 22 TD, 10 INT
At gun point I would say that Player B had the better year because he threw fewer picks but Player A stayed healthy all season and completed a much higher percentage of his passes. When you factor in that Player A is 6 years younger and that Player B commands a much larger salary, I would argue that Player A is the more valuable asset to a football team. Also, consider that Player A was throwing from behind a decimated offensive line to a group of inexperienced WRs for much of the season. Player A was also often playing from behind which tends to lead to more interceptions. Player B had Pro Bowlers at both the WR and TE positions and a much better offensive line watching his back.
Player A is Campbell. Player B is McNabb. Considering production, age, and salary going from Campbell to McNabb is hardly an upgrade. It's a lateral move at best.
3. Then there's the draft picks. The Redskins just give these things away like they are worthless. Even if you knew nothing about the NFL or how to run a football franchise, you could just look at the most successful teams and copy what they do. Take the Patriots for example. They were the most successful team of the 2000s, winning the Super Bowl 3 times and they hoard draft picks more than any team in the league. New England is constantly making moves to acquire more and more mid round draft picks. Why would a team do such a thing? I will tell you:
Mid round draft picks are very valuable. They allow you to replenish your roster with young players who are generally being paid a relatively low salary. These young players are hungry to prove that they belong in the NFL and prove that they deserve a big contract once their rookie deals expire, usually within 3-5 years. Players like this allow you to build up something called depth, a concept the Redskins are clearly not familiar with. "Depth" makes it possible to sustain injuries during the long season. Football tends to be a fairly violent game so having depth is generally considered a good thing. Last season when the Redskins starters began dropping like flies, the team resorted to signing players off the streets because they had no depth. They had no depth because they never have any draft picks. And they never have any draft picks because of deals like this one for McNabb.
I would also argue that the 37th pick is just as valuable as a late first round choice. You are essentially just as likely to find a good player at 37 as you are at 31 and you don't have to pay said player a first round salary. You're also probably getting a player who is pissed he didn't go in Round 1 and eager to prove that he should have.
4. People are saying that the Redskins will be better in 2010 because of McNabb. The Redskins will be better this year but it won't be JUST because of McNabb. The Redskins went 4-12 last season so chances are they will improve on their win total in 2010 no matter what they do. But they would have been just as likely to improve from 4-12 without McNabb as they are with him. When you reach the bottom there's nowhere to go but up. If the Redskins do manage to win 7-8 games this fall, it won't be JUST because of their new QB. That's ridiculous logic.
Consider: Chances are that Butler won't be back in the national championship game next April. If I said that Butler didn't make it back to the title game because they lost Avery Jukes to graduation, I would sound like an idiot. Just because they didn't make it back to the title game doesn't mean it was just because they lost Jukes any more that the Redskins improvement won't be just because they traded for McNabb. When you get that high there's nowhere to go but down. Just like when you are at the bottom you generally move back up. Things resort back to the norm.
5. Let's just say that McNabb comes to Washington and plays his heart out all season. He stays healthy for 16 games and plays inspired football to stick it to the Eagles organization and the city of Philadelphia. And let's say that the Redskins offensive line stays healthy all year and that the young WRs continue to develop and that Clinton Portis has one more good year in him running in Shanahan's offense. The Redskins do have a very solid team defensively, although I think they made a dumb move replacing Greg Blache (Who was doing a perfectly good job) with Jim Haslett. If the Skins stayed healthy, the schedule broke well, and they got lucky at the end of a handful of close games, they could go 9-7 and secure a wild card berth. They did it in 2007. They could do it again this year. It's not at all out of the realm of possibility. But when that's your ceiling, when you need everything to break right just to win 9 games and lose in the first round of the playoffs, you need to be REBUILDING. And that's why I didn't like the Shanahan hire, that's why I didn't like the Larry Johnson signing, and that's why I hate this trade for McNabb.
You cannot rebuild a team trading 2nd and 3rd round picks for a QB who is about to turn 34. Two years ago the Redskins traded a 2nd round pick to Miami for Jason Taylor and people acted like it was a good move. Just because Taylor, like McNabb, is a name they have heard. "Oh Jason Taylor, I've heard of him. Must be a smart move." Taylor played a handful of games, compiling a whopping one sack, was cut after the season and re-signed with The Dolphins. Nice use of a 2nd round pick.
McNabb was a good player 5-6 years ago but don't kid yourself: He was never Peyton Manning. He was never Tom Brady or Drew Brees. He was good but never great. And now he's old and at the end of his road. Trading two draft picks for a player at the end of his career is a very poor decision. The only time you could even begin to justify a trade like that would be if you felt your team was 1 player away from being a Super Bowl contender which the Redskins are not. They aren't even close. They have holes up and down their roster that can't be patched up by 2 years of a mid 3o's Donovan McNabb.
But let's just say that you think I'm wrong about everything. Let's say you think trading draft picks for veterans can work out. Let's say you think that McNabb is a big upgrade over Campbell. Let's say that you think that fighting it out for the 5th or 6th seed is worth mortgaging your future because anything can happen once you are in the playoffs.
If you follow the NFL at all, you would know that the Eagles have one of the top 3-5 front offices in the league. Philly's brass has kept the team among the league's best for nearly a decade through a series of good draft choices and smart decisions in free agency. Do you really think that a smart front office like Philadelphia would trade its starting QB to a team INSIDE THEIR OWN DIVISION if they thought he could still complete at a championship level???
Of course, they wouldn't.
Of course, they wouldn't.
And that's what scares me the most. Something that obvious and the Redskins front office misses it entirely. I expect the average fan to think the Redskins made a good move. The average fan is an absolute idiot with little to no understanding of the game. They have heard of Donovan McNabb. He's been to the Super Bowl before. So it must be a good move. I expect the national media to approve of the move. McNabb is a good guy, so most sportswriters won't publicly rip him or a trade to acquire him. But the Redskins front office is a team of people who are paid to understand football. They are paid to evaluate talent and paid to determine what is best for the franchise. And they still made a trade like this and act like it is in the best long term interest of the Washington Redskins.
That really is unbelievable.
Good news came in the form of a text from Jeff Sherman confirming that we had gone 2-0-1 in golf match up bets for the week. Nice. Love The Sherm. More good news - word from Metcalf that The Group was betting the under in a girls-trying-to-play-basketball game and they were giving me a piece. Being included in a bet by The Group is even better than winning. Very nice. Love The Group. Things were starting to turn around as I ordered my second beer.
It was around this time that my evening really began to spiral out of control. Apparently, inclement weather in Chicago was forcing all flights there to be canceled. Normally this wouldn't affect my life whatsoever. However, a middle aged woman who had been bound for the Windy City had just plopped down on the bar stool next to mine and began talking my ear off about her predicament. I must have a sign on my back that says "Tell Me About Your Boring Problems" when I'm at the airport because this sort of thing seems to happen to me all too frequently. I will try to recap our conversation for my readers. Keep in mind that I was tuning her out as much as humanly possible and barely remember a word she said because I was so uninterested in everything that was coming out of her yap. So basically it was no different than any conversation I have with any woman.
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah blah blah flight to Chicago blah blah blah canceled blah blah blah weather.
Me (looking at a girls basketball game on TV instead of her): Yeah?
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah blah blah they are making us pay for own hotel rooms blah blah blah they say weather is out of their control blah blah blah.
Me (never taking my eyes off the TV): Damn. That sucks.
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah blah blah Isn't that ridiculous? Blah blah blah.
Me: Yes. Ridiculous.
Crazy Airport Bar Lady: Blah.....
Me: Check please.
As I was in the process of paying my check I noticed that another TV at the bar, which was showing ESPNEWS, had just flashed a story about Donovan McNabb. I'm 27 now and my vision is starting to slip and from where I was sitting I would have sworn it said McNabb was now a Raider. That would have made perfect sense considering all the McNabb-to-Oakland chatter during the previous week. I still had to walk closer to the TV to confirm. As I got closer I could see the words on the screen more clearly.
"ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that the Eagles have traded QB Donovan McNabb to the Redskins." Not the Raiders. The Redskins. My dumb idiot asshole retard Redskins had made yet another ridiculous trade, no doubt giving up a high draft choice for a washed up player at the back end of his career. Again. Yet again.
What. The. Fuck.
I paid my tab and stormed out of the bar towards Gate B21. I wanted to know exactly what we gave up to acquire a QB who will turn 34 during the regular season and is due an 8 figure salary for the year. Although in the back of my mind I already knew. The Eagles had publicly stated their asking price of a Top 42 draft pick in exchange for McNabb and the Redskins held the 37th overall pick in this month's draft. I still wanted to know for sure, so I called the biggest NFL fan in my phone - Superbook manager Ed Salmons, who also doubles as an Eagles die hard. The McNabb deal was such a fresh story that even he didn't know the exact details of the trade. I called my brother and through a barrage of expletives he informed me that, as I expected, the Skins had given up their 2010 2nd round pick and just for good measure had also tossed in a 3rd or 4th round pick in 2011. Great. Already giving up our picks in next year's draft. Good decision, guys. No teams ever build championship rosters through the draft.
I started receiving a lot of phone calls and texts. Curse words and offensive pet names for McNabb from some of my buddies who root for the Skins. Mocks and taunts from friends who like Philly. And a few people who just wanted to know what I thought of the deal. I was so flustered all I could say to a few friends was that I thought it was unbelievable that the Redskins could do something so stupid. Unbelievable that they could continue to make the same mistakes they have been making for 10+ years. And unbelievable that no matter who is in charge that they continue to do the same dumb things year after year.
Allow me to elaborate:
1. This trade is exactly why I didn't want the Redskins to hire Mike Shananan as their head coach. Although I admit that Shanahan is a good football mind and obviously an upgrade over Jim Zorn, I never wanted him because I assumed that a coach who will be 58 on opening day and who has already won 2 Super Bowl championships would not be interested in a rebuilding job. Obviously, I was right about that.
2. I keep hearing this talk about how McNabb is a big upgrade over the Redskins incumbent QB, Jason Campbell, and how his presence alone will make the Redskins a much better team. Um, are we sure about this? Here are some statistics from 2009:
Player A: 16 starts, 3,618 passing yards, 64.5% completions, 20 TD, 15 INT
Player B: 14 starts, 3,553 passing yards, 60.3% completions, 22 TD, 10 INT
At gun point I would say that Player B had the better year because he threw fewer picks but Player A stayed healthy all season and completed a much higher percentage of his passes. When you factor in that Player A is 6 years younger and that Player B commands a much larger salary, I would argue that Player A is the more valuable asset to a football team. Also, consider that Player A was throwing from behind a decimated offensive line to a group of inexperienced WRs for much of the season. Player A was also often playing from behind which tends to lead to more interceptions. Player B had Pro Bowlers at both the WR and TE positions and a much better offensive line watching his back.
Player A is Campbell. Player B is McNabb. Considering production, age, and salary going from Campbell to McNabb is hardly an upgrade. It's a lateral move at best.
3. Then there's the draft picks. The Redskins just give these things away like they are worthless. Even if you knew nothing about the NFL or how to run a football franchise, you could just look at the most successful teams and copy what they do. Take the Patriots for example. They were the most successful team of the 2000s, winning the Super Bowl 3 times and they hoard draft picks more than any team in the league. New England is constantly making moves to acquire more and more mid round draft picks. Why would a team do such a thing? I will tell you:
Mid round draft picks are very valuable. They allow you to replenish your roster with young players who are generally being paid a relatively low salary. These young players are hungry to prove that they belong in the NFL and prove that they deserve a big contract once their rookie deals expire, usually within 3-5 years. Players like this allow you to build up something called depth, a concept the Redskins are clearly not familiar with. "Depth" makes it possible to sustain injuries during the long season. Football tends to be a fairly violent game so having depth is generally considered a good thing. Last season when the Redskins starters began dropping like flies, the team resorted to signing players off the streets because they had no depth. They had no depth because they never have any draft picks. And they never have any draft picks because of deals like this one for McNabb.
I would also argue that the 37th pick is just as valuable as a late first round choice. You are essentially just as likely to find a good player at 37 as you are at 31 and you don't have to pay said player a first round salary. You're also probably getting a player who is pissed he didn't go in Round 1 and eager to prove that he should have.
4. People are saying that the Redskins will be better in 2010 because of McNabb. The Redskins will be better this year but it won't be JUST because of McNabb. The Redskins went 4-12 last season so chances are they will improve on their win total in 2010 no matter what they do. But they would have been just as likely to improve from 4-12 without McNabb as they are with him. When you reach the bottom there's nowhere to go but up. If the Redskins do manage to win 7-8 games this fall, it won't be JUST because of their new QB. That's ridiculous logic.
Consider: Chances are that Butler won't be back in the national championship game next April. If I said that Butler didn't make it back to the title game because they lost Avery Jukes to graduation, I would sound like an idiot. Just because they didn't make it back to the title game doesn't mean it was just because they lost Jukes any more that the Redskins improvement won't be just because they traded for McNabb. When you get that high there's nowhere to go but down. Just like when you are at the bottom you generally move back up. Things resort back to the norm.
5. Let's just say that McNabb comes to Washington and plays his heart out all season. He stays healthy for 16 games and plays inspired football to stick it to the Eagles organization and the city of Philadelphia. And let's say that the Redskins offensive line stays healthy all year and that the young WRs continue to develop and that Clinton Portis has one more good year in him running in Shanahan's offense. The Redskins do have a very solid team defensively, although I think they made a dumb move replacing Greg Blache (Who was doing a perfectly good job) with Jim Haslett. If the Skins stayed healthy, the schedule broke well, and they got lucky at the end of a handful of close games, they could go 9-7 and secure a wild card berth. They did it in 2007. They could do it again this year. It's not at all out of the realm of possibility. But when that's your ceiling, when you need everything to break right just to win 9 games and lose in the first round of the playoffs, you need to be REBUILDING. And that's why I didn't like the Shanahan hire, that's why I didn't like the Larry Johnson signing, and that's why I hate this trade for McNabb.
You cannot rebuild a team trading 2nd and 3rd round picks for a QB who is about to turn 34. Two years ago the Redskins traded a 2nd round pick to Miami for Jason Taylor and people acted like it was a good move. Just because Taylor, like McNabb, is a name they have heard. "Oh Jason Taylor, I've heard of him. Must be a smart move." Taylor played a handful of games, compiling a whopping one sack, was cut after the season and re-signed with The Dolphins. Nice use of a 2nd round pick.
McNabb was a good player 5-6 years ago but don't kid yourself: He was never Peyton Manning. He was never Tom Brady or Drew Brees. He was good but never great. And now he's old and at the end of his road. Trading two draft picks for a player at the end of his career is a very poor decision. The only time you could even begin to justify a trade like that would be if you felt your team was 1 player away from being a Super Bowl contender which the Redskins are not. They aren't even close. They have holes up and down their roster that can't be patched up by 2 years of a mid 3o's Donovan McNabb.
But let's just say that you think I'm wrong about everything. Let's say you think trading draft picks for veterans can work out. Let's say you think that McNabb is a big upgrade over Campbell. Let's say that you think that fighting it out for the 5th or 6th seed is worth mortgaging your future because anything can happen once you are in the playoffs.
If you follow the NFL at all, you would know that the Eagles have one of the top 3-5 front offices in the league. Philly's brass has kept the team among the league's best for nearly a decade through a series of good draft choices and smart decisions in free agency. Do you really think that a smart front office like Philadelphia would trade its starting QB to a team INSIDE THEIR OWN DIVISION if they thought he could still complete at a championship level???
Of course, they wouldn't.
Of course, they wouldn't.
And that's what scares me the most. Something that obvious and the Redskins front office misses it entirely. I expect the average fan to think the Redskins made a good move. The average fan is an absolute idiot with little to no understanding of the game. They have heard of Donovan McNabb. He's been to the Super Bowl before. So it must be a good move. I expect the national media to approve of the move. McNabb is a good guy, so most sportswriters won't publicly rip him or a trade to acquire him. But the Redskins front office is a team of people who are paid to understand football. They are paid to evaluate talent and paid to determine what is best for the franchise. And they still made a trade like this and act like it is in the best long term interest of the Washington Redskins.
That really is unbelievable.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Sports Illustrated put out its
.... NFL preview edition this week and inspired me to do an NFL preview of my own. While it is true that I don't know anything about the NFL and am in no way qualified to offer up any predictions on the subject, I am going to do it anyway. And I fully anticipate my predictions to be more accurate than SI's resident assclown, Peter King.
I'm going to do division-by-division write-ups picking a winner of each, then select two wild card teams and make playoff projections. I should probably warn you now that I will not be making any jokes in this blog. And please save your own jokes for the end. CB - You may need to spread this out over about a week. It's pretty long. Thanks in advance.
NFC East
King has the division going Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins. I think Sports Illustrated has picked the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East something like 19 years in a row. I can remember being all excited to read SI's NFL Preview when I was a kid and always being crushed when they picked us to finish last. And this was back when the Cardinals were in the division and averaged about 3 wins per year for a decade.
The Giants won the East last season with relative ease, before falling to another member of the division, Ed's Eagles, in the divisional playoff round. On paper, the Eagles appear to be clearly the best team in the conference. They got rid of several players I didn't like (LJ Smith, Dawkins, Lito, etc....) and added depth along the offensive line and more weapons on offense. The defense lost Stewart Bradley to a torn ACL but I don't see that as being a big deal. I'm sure they can just plug in the next guy and he'll be every bit as mediocre as Bradley was. I like the additions of Jason Peters, Ellis Hobbs III, and LaSean McCoy and will call for an Eagles division title. I also made a bet on this.
The other teams in the division all have more glaring holes: The Giants have no clear #1 WR now that Burress is headed for jail. The Cowboys are still coached by Wade Phillips and appear to have done nothing to improve their team since Bill Parcells left 3 years ago. The Redskins offensive line is a lock to wear down as the season goes on.
Finishing Order:
1. Eagles
2. Redskins (WC)
3. Giants
4. Cowboys
(I actually think the Giants are better than the Redskins but I'm picking the Skins to finish second anyway behind the division's best defense.... Actually it's just because I am a fan and don't really give a fuck if it seems like a homer pick. Suck my balls, Peter King.)
NFC North
This could be the most interesting division in the NFL, mostly because the greatest player in league history is back in it.... on a different team this time. The real winner in the NFC North is America because we all get to watch Brett Favre play the game with the same child-like joy he has whilst winging the pigskin around in his backyard as his golden retriever looks on. But I suppose I could make a more specific prediction than that. Two NFC North teams are getting Super Bowl hype but I'm going to pick a third team, the Green Bay Packers, to win the division title and make a deep January run. The Packers have the division's best QB in Aaron Rodgers and a new Dom Capers-coached 3-4 defense that should be way better than the defense they had last season.
The Vikings have arguably the best defensive line in football, a very good offensive line, and the best RB in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, so it's hard to predict them to fall apart. At the same time I don't see how a team coached by Brad Childress and quarterbacked by a 40-year-old graybeard can be a legit Super Bowl contender. Chicago is getting way too much hype and I've never liked Jay Cutler, anyway. The Lions have nowhere to go but up but are clearly at the bottom of this group.
Finishing Order:
1. Packers
2. Vikings (WC)
3. Bears
4. Lions
NFC South
Carolina won this division last year and were joined in the playoffs by the upstart Atlanta Falcons. Blogcast followers know that I have a bet on the Falcons to win the division at 4-1 which I feel is a good bet, as I see this being 50/50 between Atlanta and the New Orleans Saints. Peter King picked the Falcons and he's an idiot. I bet the Falcons and I'm an idiot. So who is my official pick to win the South? I'm still going with Atlanta. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White all had great seasons last year and will enter their second year as a trio with Tony Gonzalez opening the field for all of them.
I hate the Panthers this year and don't see them contending for the division title or even a playoff berth. Everyone is way down on Tampa Bay this season, so I'll call for them to surprise a few people and win 7-8 games behind an underrated defense.
Finishing Order:
1. Falcons
2. Saints
3. Bucs
4. Panthers
NFC West
I'm constantly amazed by these kids betting on the Cardinals to win the Super Bowl at 30-1. Last season Arizona won the NFC West, hosted a first round playoff game, caught a huge break when the Eagles beat the Giants putting the conference title game in Arizona, and a running money line parlay on Arizona in the postseason alone would have still paid way more than 30-1. I don't even see the Cardinals making the playoffs this year and bet them under wins.
Seattle owned this division for years and I feel like the Cardinals were just borrowing it last season while the Seahawks were buried by a rash of injuries. I've heard different people talk about both the 49ers and Rams as sleepers. I don't see anything to like about the 49ers but I could see the Rams being a lot better this season. They drafted an offensive tackle with the second overall pick and sound like they are committed to establishing a tough ground game behind him.
Finishing Order:
1. Seahawks
2. Rams
3. Cardinals
4. 49ers
Wild Cards:
(3) Seahawks def. (6) Redskins
(5) Vikings def. (4) Falcons
Divisional Playoffs:
(2) Packers def. Seahawks
(1) Eagles def. Vikings
NFC Championship Game:
Eagles def. Packers
The Eagles make every effort to choke the game away but in the end Andy Reid and his outrageously highly power rated team head back to the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Last year the Patriots were coming off an 18-1 season and seemed like a virtual lock to win the AFC East. Then the Jets acquired America's Quarterback, Tom Terrific got injured on opening day, the Dolphins started using a high school offense, and when the playoffs started, New England was shockingly on the outside looking in. It was kind of a strange season in the AFC East. This year the Patriots are again a decisive favorite to win the East and I'm going out on a limb and saying that 2008 was a fluke and that the Pats will be back on top.
I've been telling people that the Jets are one of my favorite sleeper teams this season and I expect them to challenge for a playoff spot behind a very aggressive defense. How much of a drop is there between Favre and rookie Mark Sanchez really? I don't think it's that big of a difference. Favre kind of.... sucks. I bet Miami under wins and expect them to fall back this season. On paper the Bills have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, they fired their offensive coordinator a week before the season starts, and their best player has a reality show on VHI. Sounds like a last place season to me.
Finishing Order:
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Dolphins
4. Bills
AFC North
Last season I made a bet on the Steelers to win the AFC North at +150 at the fabulous Venetian. I liked the bet so much that I also recommended it to several co-workers, some of whom miraculously took my advice and bet it, as well. I liked the bet so much not only because I thought Pittsburgh was going to have a good season but also because I was way down on the division co-favorites from last preseason - the Cleveland Browns. Well, I was right about the Steelers being good and I was right about the Browns being terrible, but what I didn't account for was that Baltimore had a great team last season and nearly stole the division. The Ravens defense was typically dominant and rookie QB Joe Flacco was great. Pittsburgh was lucky to win both regular season games against the Ravens and the division could have easily gone Baltimore's way.
This season, I'm going to pick the Ravens to win the North behind Flacco, that tough defense, and what should be a great running game. Most people probably don't realize that the Ravens led the NFL in rushing last season and the addition of first round pick Michael Oher should make them even more formidable on the ground. Pittsburgh will be right there as well and I bet the Bengals over wins, so apparently I like them. I have absolutely no idea what the Cleveland Browns are doing. It doesn't seem like they do either.
Finishing Order:
1. Ravens
2. Steelers (WC)
3. Bengals
4. Browns
AFC South
Tennessee was the best team in the NFL during the 2008 regular season. The Titans earned home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and dominated play between the 20's against the Ravens in the divisional round. Unfortunately, Jeff Fisher's guys repeatedly found ways to choke the game away before losing to the Ravens on a last minute field goal. Tennessee should have won that game and they should have been hosting the Steelers in the AFC Championship game the following weekend. It's very possible that the Titans would have won the Super Bowl if they could have beat Baltimore that day.
One thing I have learned about the NFL is that chances like the one the Titans had last season are few and far between. Tennessee may have been the best team in the NFL last season and maybe they should have won the Super Bowl. What does that guarantee for this season? Absolutely nothing. Especially in what I consider to be the best divison in the AFC and the second best division in the NFL behind the NFC East. In fact, I'm calling for the Titans to finish 3rd this season behind the Colts and Jaguars. I love Indianapolis this season. Nobody is talking about the Colts, who last I checked still have the best QB in the NFL, won 9 of their last 10 games last season, and are power rated so highly that they were favored on the road in San Diego in last season's wild card round.
I'm picking the Colts to win this division and also like Jacksonville to have a good season. The Jaguars drafted offensive tackles in each of the first two rounds and should be effective on the ground this year. The Houston Texans were my big sleeper pick last season but they seem to be one of those dreaded trendy sleepers in 2009, which means they will probably finish last. The Texans have a lot of good young players but they are an inevitable Matt Schaub injury away from starting Sexy Rexy at QB, and they will face a very tough schedule. I don't see it with them.
Finishing Order:
1. Colts
2. Jaguars (WC)
3. Titans
4. Texans
AFC West
I guess you could call this a divsion. I'm picking the Chargers to win it but all I'm going to talk about in this space is Shawne Merriman's arrest and the Raiders trading for Richard Seymour. When I heard that Merriman was being charged with choking and restraining a female guest, I wasn't even remotely surprised. He's a roided out NFL linebacker. He's capable of pretty much anything. What shocked me was that his guest was MTV reality personality Tila Tequila. Who knew that those two were dating? Must be nice playing for the Chargers. You get to live in San Diego and date slutty Asian TV stars. And no one seems to care that your best years were the direct result of you cheating and taking steroids.
For the life of me, I can't figure out what the Raiders were thinking trading their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots for Richard Seymour. Seymour is 29, he's in the last year of his contract, and what exactly is he going to bring to Oakland? It's not like they have any chance of contending for a playoff berth with him. It just makes no sense to trade what will almost certainly be a Top 10 pick for a guy who is 29 and on the downside of his career. The only time that a move like this would be even remotely justifiable would be when your team is a player away from contending for a Super Bowl, which obviously the Raiders are not. My advice to the Raiders is that if the Patriots are willing to make a trade with you, just assume that Belichick is right and you are wrong and hang up the phone immediately. Oh, uh the Chiefs are going to be mediocre at best, the Broncos are a mess and the Raiders are idiots. What a division!
Finishing Order:
1. Chargers
2. Chiefs
3. Broncos
4. Raiders
Wild Cards:
(3) Patriots def. (6) Jaguars
(4) Ravens def. (5) Steelers
Divisional Playoffs:
(2) Colts def. Patriots
Ravens def. (1) Chargers
AFC Championship Game:
Colts def. Ravens
To beat a defense as good as Baltimore's, you need a QB who won't make a lot of mistakes and you need to be able to run the ball effectively. Indy has the best QB in the game and they now have two RB's they can count on, just like they did 3 years ago when they won it all.
Super Bowl XLIV:
Colts 27 Eagles 23
This would be Ed's dream Super Bowl. His beloved Eagles facing off against the QB he considers to be the league's biggest choker. The one thing Ed is forgetting? The Eagles are even bigger chokers than Manning is. At least Peyton has one ring. I think he'll get another one this season. Sorry, bro.
The funny thing about making NFL predictions and posting them online is that there is no possible way I could be successful. No matter how good or bad these picks end up being, everyone will just mock them even though they most likely couldn't do any better themselves. I'm sure that last season at this time most people were picking the Patriots and Cowboys. They both missed the playoffs.
More interesting tidbits:
* Ed is not allowed to make any jokes about how dumb my picks are, seeing as how his pick to win the BCS Championship game was the Oklahoma Sooners. I hope you snapped up some 5-1, bro.
* However, if you think that Oklahoma is eliminated from the BCS you're an idiot. It's college football. It's retarded. Losing a game in September and losing a game in November are somehow two different things. If they beat Texas next month and some other teams in different conferences lose, the Sooners could absolutely end up in Pasadena.
* 50 years from now when college football has a playoff system, people are going to look back at this era and none of them are going to understand why we didn't just set up a playoff system. I know I don't understand it.
* I hate this new rule in college football where if you hit a guy above the shoulders it's automatically a penalty. On Saturday, I saw a player who had the ball and was in bounds get hit up high and draw a penalty flag. Again - He was IN BOUNDS and he HAD THE BALL. What exactly was the defender supposed to do? We are 20 years away from defensive players having to either escort the man with the ball out of bounds or try to just convince him to go down on his own through clever wordplay.
* I may be more qualified to do a preview like this than you think. After all, I am currently in first place in the Leroy's College Challenge. And that's through one whole week. Keep an eye on entry "Ray Drecker" as it plummets down the leader board in the coming weeks.
* When I told a friend of mine back home that I went 6-1 over the weekend, he paused and then said "How is that even fucking possible?" I'm glad I brought it up.
* I also have a joint entry with my brother and a 3 man entry with two friends of mine from high school. My brother and I are picking under the alias "Two Brothers" and are 4-3 through Week 1. For the record, my 4 picks went 4-0, while he served up a solid 0-3 effort. I hate my brother.
The entry I have with my buddies, "Tim Donaghy" is currently 4-3, as well.
* Four of the drivers I had match up bets on in the Pep Boys 500 went to the garage. None of the guys I bet against did. I bet two of those four guys multiple times. I may have lost a Sherman unit on that race. I hate NASCAR.
Until next week at least.
Boogity, boogity, boogity....
Sorry, Chris.
I'm going to do division-by-division write-ups picking a winner of each, then select two wild card teams and make playoff projections. I should probably warn you now that I will not be making any jokes in this blog. And please save your own jokes for the end. CB - You may need to spread this out over about a week. It's pretty long. Thanks in advance.
NFC East
King has the division going Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins. I think Sports Illustrated has picked the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East something like 19 years in a row. I can remember being all excited to read SI's NFL Preview when I was a kid and always being crushed when they picked us to finish last. And this was back when the Cardinals were in the division and averaged about 3 wins per year for a decade.
The Giants won the East last season with relative ease, before falling to another member of the division, Ed's Eagles, in the divisional playoff round. On paper, the Eagles appear to be clearly the best team in the conference. They got rid of several players I didn't like (LJ Smith, Dawkins, Lito, etc....) and added depth along the offensive line and more weapons on offense. The defense lost Stewart Bradley to a torn ACL but I don't see that as being a big deal. I'm sure they can just plug in the next guy and he'll be every bit as mediocre as Bradley was. I like the additions of Jason Peters, Ellis Hobbs III, and LaSean McCoy and will call for an Eagles division title. I also made a bet on this.
The other teams in the division all have more glaring holes: The Giants have no clear #1 WR now that Burress is headed for jail. The Cowboys are still coached by Wade Phillips and appear to have done nothing to improve their team since Bill Parcells left 3 years ago. The Redskins offensive line is a lock to wear down as the season goes on.
Finishing Order:
1. Eagles
2. Redskins (WC)
3. Giants
4. Cowboys
(I actually think the Giants are better than the Redskins but I'm picking the Skins to finish second anyway behind the division's best defense.... Actually it's just because I am a fan and don't really give a fuck if it seems like a homer pick. Suck my balls, Peter King.)
NFC North
This could be the most interesting division in the NFL, mostly because the greatest player in league history is back in it.... on a different team this time. The real winner in the NFC North is America because we all get to watch Brett Favre play the game with the same child-like joy he has whilst winging the pigskin around in his backyard as his golden retriever looks on. But I suppose I could make a more specific prediction than that. Two NFC North teams are getting Super Bowl hype but I'm going to pick a third team, the Green Bay Packers, to win the division title and make a deep January run. The Packers have the division's best QB in Aaron Rodgers and a new Dom Capers-coached 3-4 defense that should be way better than the defense they had last season.
The Vikings have arguably the best defensive line in football, a very good offensive line, and the best RB in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, so it's hard to predict them to fall apart. At the same time I don't see how a team coached by Brad Childress and quarterbacked by a 40-year-old graybeard can be a legit Super Bowl contender. Chicago is getting way too much hype and I've never liked Jay Cutler, anyway. The Lions have nowhere to go but up but are clearly at the bottom of this group.
Finishing Order:
1. Packers
2. Vikings (WC)
3. Bears
4. Lions
NFC South
Carolina won this division last year and were joined in the playoffs by the upstart Atlanta Falcons. Blogcast followers know that I have a bet on the Falcons to win the division at 4-1 which I feel is a good bet, as I see this being 50/50 between Atlanta and the New Orleans Saints. Peter King picked the Falcons and he's an idiot. I bet the Falcons and I'm an idiot. So who is my official pick to win the South? I'm still going with Atlanta. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White all had great seasons last year and will enter their second year as a trio with Tony Gonzalez opening the field for all of them.
I hate the Panthers this year and don't see them contending for the division title or even a playoff berth. Everyone is way down on Tampa Bay this season, so I'll call for them to surprise a few people and win 7-8 games behind an underrated defense.
Finishing Order:
1. Falcons
2. Saints
3. Bucs
4. Panthers
NFC West
I'm constantly amazed by these kids betting on the Cardinals to win the Super Bowl at 30-1. Last season Arizona won the NFC West, hosted a first round playoff game, caught a huge break when the Eagles beat the Giants putting the conference title game in Arizona, and a running money line parlay on Arizona in the postseason alone would have still paid way more than 30-1. I don't even see the Cardinals making the playoffs this year and bet them under wins.
Seattle owned this division for years and I feel like the Cardinals were just borrowing it last season while the Seahawks were buried by a rash of injuries. I've heard different people talk about both the 49ers and Rams as sleepers. I don't see anything to like about the 49ers but I could see the Rams being a lot better this season. They drafted an offensive tackle with the second overall pick and sound like they are committed to establishing a tough ground game behind him.
Finishing Order:
1. Seahawks
2. Rams
3. Cardinals
4. 49ers
Wild Cards:
(3) Seahawks def. (6) Redskins
(5) Vikings def. (4) Falcons
Divisional Playoffs:
(2) Packers def. Seahawks
(1) Eagles def. Vikings
NFC Championship Game:
Eagles def. Packers
The Eagles make every effort to choke the game away but in the end Andy Reid and his outrageously highly power rated team head back to the Super Bowl.
AFC East
Last year the Patriots were coming off an 18-1 season and seemed like a virtual lock to win the AFC East. Then the Jets acquired America's Quarterback, Tom Terrific got injured on opening day, the Dolphins started using a high school offense, and when the playoffs started, New England was shockingly on the outside looking in. It was kind of a strange season in the AFC East. This year the Patriots are again a decisive favorite to win the East and I'm going out on a limb and saying that 2008 was a fluke and that the Pats will be back on top.
I've been telling people that the Jets are one of my favorite sleeper teams this season and I expect them to challenge for a playoff spot behind a very aggressive defense. How much of a drop is there between Favre and rookie Mark Sanchez really? I don't think it's that big of a difference. Favre kind of.... sucks. I bet Miami under wins and expect them to fall back this season. On paper the Bills have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, they fired their offensive coordinator a week before the season starts, and their best player has a reality show on VHI. Sounds like a last place season to me.
Finishing Order:
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Dolphins
4. Bills
AFC North
Last season I made a bet on the Steelers to win the AFC North at +150 at the fabulous Venetian. I liked the bet so much that I also recommended it to several co-workers, some of whom miraculously took my advice and bet it, as well. I liked the bet so much not only because I thought Pittsburgh was going to have a good season but also because I was way down on the division co-favorites from last preseason - the Cleveland Browns. Well, I was right about the Steelers being good and I was right about the Browns being terrible, but what I didn't account for was that Baltimore had a great team last season and nearly stole the division. The Ravens defense was typically dominant and rookie QB Joe Flacco was great. Pittsburgh was lucky to win both regular season games against the Ravens and the division could have easily gone Baltimore's way.
This season, I'm going to pick the Ravens to win the North behind Flacco, that tough defense, and what should be a great running game. Most people probably don't realize that the Ravens led the NFL in rushing last season and the addition of first round pick Michael Oher should make them even more formidable on the ground. Pittsburgh will be right there as well and I bet the Bengals over wins, so apparently I like them. I have absolutely no idea what the Cleveland Browns are doing. It doesn't seem like they do either.
Finishing Order:
1. Ravens
2. Steelers (WC)
3. Bengals
4. Browns
AFC South
Tennessee was the best team in the NFL during the 2008 regular season. The Titans earned home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and dominated play between the 20's against the Ravens in the divisional round. Unfortunately, Jeff Fisher's guys repeatedly found ways to choke the game away before losing to the Ravens on a last minute field goal. Tennessee should have won that game and they should have been hosting the Steelers in the AFC Championship game the following weekend. It's very possible that the Titans would have won the Super Bowl if they could have beat Baltimore that day.
One thing I have learned about the NFL is that chances like the one the Titans had last season are few and far between. Tennessee may have been the best team in the NFL last season and maybe they should have won the Super Bowl. What does that guarantee for this season? Absolutely nothing. Especially in what I consider to be the best divison in the AFC and the second best division in the NFL behind the NFC East. In fact, I'm calling for the Titans to finish 3rd this season behind the Colts and Jaguars. I love Indianapolis this season. Nobody is talking about the Colts, who last I checked still have the best QB in the NFL, won 9 of their last 10 games last season, and are power rated so highly that they were favored on the road in San Diego in last season's wild card round.
I'm picking the Colts to win this division and also like Jacksonville to have a good season. The Jaguars drafted offensive tackles in each of the first two rounds and should be effective on the ground this year. The Houston Texans were my big sleeper pick last season but they seem to be one of those dreaded trendy sleepers in 2009, which means they will probably finish last. The Texans have a lot of good young players but they are an inevitable Matt Schaub injury away from starting Sexy Rexy at QB, and they will face a very tough schedule. I don't see it with them.
Finishing Order:
1. Colts
2. Jaguars (WC)
3. Titans
4. Texans
AFC West
I guess you could call this a divsion. I'm picking the Chargers to win it but all I'm going to talk about in this space is Shawne Merriman's arrest and the Raiders trading for Richard Seymour. When I heard that Merriman was being charged with choking and restraining a female guest, I wasn't even remotely surprised. He's a roided out NFL linebacker. He's capable of pretty much anything. What shocked me was that his guest was MTV reality personality Tila Tequila. Who knew that those two were dating? Must be nice playing for the Chargers. You get to live in San Diego and date slutty Asian TV stars. And no one seems to care that your best years were the direct result of you cheating and taking steroids.
For the life of me, I can't figure out what the Raiders were thinking trading their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots for Richard Seymour. Seymour is 29, he's in the last year of his contract, and what exactly is he going to bring to Oakland? It's not like they have any chance of contending for a playoff berth with him. It just makes no sense to trade what will almost certainly be a Top 10 pick for a guy who is 29 and on the downside of his career. The only time that a move like this would be even remotely justifiable would be when your team is a player away from contending for a Super Bowl, which obviously the Raiders are not. My advice to the Raiders is that if the Patriots are willing to make a trade with you, just assume that Belichick is right and you are wrong and hang up the phone immediately. Oh, uh the Chiefs are going to be mediocre at best, the Broncos are a mess and the Raiders are idiots. What a division!
Finishing Order:
1. Chargers
2. Chiefs
3. Broncos
4. Raiders
Wild Cards:
(3) Patriots def. (6) Jaguars
(4) Ravens def. (5) Steelers
Divisional Playoffs:
(2) Colts def. Patriots
Ravens def. (1) Chargers
AFC Championship Game:
Colts def. Ravens
To beat a defense as good as Baltimore's, you need a QB who won't make a lot of mistakes and you need to be able to run the ball effectively. Indy has the best QB in the game and they now have two RB's they can count on, just like they did 3 years ago when they won it all.
Super Bowl XLIV:
Colts 27 Eagles 23
This would be Ed's dream Super Bowl. His beloved Eagles facing off against the QB he considers to be the league's biggest choker. The one thing Ed is forgetting? The Eagles are even bigger chokers than Manning is. At least Peyton has one ring. I think he'll get another one this season. Sorry, bro.
The funny thing about making NFL predictions and posting them online is that there is no possible way I could be successful. No matter how good or bad these picks end up being, everyone will just mock them even though they most likely couldn't do any better themselves. I'm sure that last season at this time most people were picking the Patriots and Cowboys. They both missed the playoffs.
More interesting tidbits:
* Ed is not allowed to make any jokes about how dumb my picks are, seeing as how his pick to win the BCS Championship game was the Oklahoma Sooners. I hope you snapped up some 5-1, bro.
* However, if you think that Oklahoma is eliminated from the BCS you're an idiot. It's college football. It's retarded. Losing a game in September and losing a game in November are somehow two different things. If they beat Texas next month and some other teams in different conferences lose, the Sooners could absolutely end up in Pasadena.
* 50 years from now when college football has a playoff system, people are going to look back at this era and none of them are going to understand why we didn't just set up a playoff system. I know I don't understand it.
* I hate this new rule in college football where if you hit a guy above the shoulders it's automatically a penalty. On Saturday, I saw a player who had the ball and was in bounds get hit up high and draw a penalty flag. Again - He was IN BOUNDS and he HAD THE BALL. What exactly was the defender supposed to do? We are 20 years away from defensive players having to either escort the man with the ball out of bounds or try to just convince him to go down on his own through clever wordplay.
* I may be more qualified to do a preview like this than you think. After all, I am currently in first place in the Leroy's College Challenge. And that's through one whole week. Keep an eye on entry "Ray Drecker" as it plummets down the leader board in the coming weeks.
* When I told a friend of mine back home that I went 6-1 over the weekend, he paused and then said "How is that even fucking possible?" I'm glad I brought it up.
* I also have a joint entry with my brother and a 3 man entry with two friends of mine from high school. My brother and I are picking under the alias "Two Brothers" and are 4-3 through Week 1. For the record, my 4 picks went 4-0, while he served up a solid 0-3 effort. I hate my brother.
The entry I have with my buddies, "Tim Donaghy" is currently 4-3, as well.
* Four of the drivers I had match up bets on in the Pep Boys 500 went to the garage. None of the guys I bet against did. I bet two of those four guys multiple times. I may have lost a Sherman unit on that race. I hate NASCAR.
Until next week at least.
Boogity, boogity, boogity....
Sorry, Chris.
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Carl Edwards
May be the blog's biggest hero....
